Sorry for jumping the gun here (posting this a day too early) but as I see it, the Mortirolo will decide the Giro in the following way:
Basso will need to crest it with at least a minute on Evans if he wants any chance of taking Rosa home from Verona. He lost some 45secs in a TT that is comparible in length last year and I really don't see the Torricelle benefiting him at all - he lost 28 secs to Evans on a mountain that should under most circumstances suit him a lot better.
Evans will either win the Verona TT or lose a handful of seconds to the winner - who won't be Basso.

So it all comes down to this:
Basso needs to seriously drop Evans on the Mortirolo because he is an awful descender and needs to begin the climb to Aprica with a nice head start, as he won't shake anyone there. (this isn't 2006)
I am afraid the Gavia on the following day won't suffice for him to make any gaps, particularly with the enormous descent.
I hope everyone will be watching on Friday

the motirolo will be a slog fest between evans and basso. i don't think basso will be able to crack cadel. arroyo will be toast?

+1 on all accounts.

Edit: And it could turn out in Evans' favour, if they crest the top with a nice gap on the other riders then he will suck Basso's wheel all the way to the finish and outsprint him for the bonus seconds.
In this event, Basso should wait for Nibali on the descent ... he might not even have to and Nibali join them courtesy of his demon descending

The best scenario would of course be for Basso to go over the top alone and Nibali to join Evans on the descent

This will be a stage that may well determine the final outcome. I will not be barred from the TV(or computer) by painters like Wildone, but unfortunately it is a day that I will not be able to watch.

No, wheelsucking isn't a strategy. It is only something done by inferior riders who will never amount to anything.

/sorry... had to

posted in cyclingnews.com today: Vino hoping for rain on Saturday...says he does better in those conditions.

Looked forward to this all week!

The obvious prediction for me is Nibali is sent out early, probably on beginning of the Mortorollo, Evans should follow, but will he? If he doesn't Basso will at some point pull away with Nabali waiting near the top of the Mortidello and they'll ride down the Motorola together!


I hope it rains!

Also hoping that somehow Arroyo can stay with them.

Spelling mistakes courtesy of having to look up the name of the big one so many times.

I doubt that Nibali will be with Basso after 2-3kms of the Mortirolo.

Di Luca?

Get out, really?!

BTW,

do you guys think Basso has the stuff to win this? Di Luca? ( ) Another Italian?

Tomorrow's huge but it ain't gonna decide the Giro unless somebody really cracks, and I don't see that happening. All I know is I got the day off and can watch it streaming...I am freaking psyched! It isn't a 2 man race yet for sure, but it is becoming a great mano a mano battle, 2 totally different styles coached by the same guy. Nice. This is GT racing at its best.

Exactly, cuz he'll be up the road from an earlier attack!


not sure I'd want Basso to try to blow everyone up on that climb being 30k from the end...we'll see...personnaly i'd have Nibali attack on the climb before and see if he cant get something cooking...i think i remember the trivigno being a tougher descent? plays into Il Falco Jrs hands...


we'll see!

Just checked out the prologue results, which I think can give a good indicator to the short, very technical final TT.

If the relative positions of the main guys remains the same for the next two stages (not that likely, I know) and Evans takes aobut as many seconds/km in Verona on Basso as in Amsterdam, they are almost tied on GC.
That means that he will win the Giro by maybe 20secs because just by clinging on, he will always be one of the top 4-5 guys on each of the next two stages and having done no work, he will be fresh for the sprint and bonus seconds, probably taking a stage or even both.

Greipel, Dean and Hondo non starters today.

I guess no one is expecting a sprint finish either today or tomorrow

I don't think Evans will cling on. He'll be close, but he will lose more seconds, maybe a minute. It's up in the air but as a Basso fan I'm feeling good, especially with the Liquigas train helping him. Again, why did Evans choose to be on another team with little help? If he never wins a GT (though I think he will), that will be why.

Agree with the team issue for Evans ... his historical lack of support and seeming lack of initiative to really build a strong team around himself has been discussed over and over again here. He is, however, a true master in capitalizing on the work of other teams.

I am also a Basso fan, but not as optimistic. Then again, when it comes to sport and any competitive issue, I am an end-of-the-world pessimist

/wishful thinking on/ I appreciate all the expert prognostication, but how is it possible that everyone has failed to realize that Carlos "Third Week" Sastre will crest the Mortirolo with three minutes over everyone??? /wishful thinking off/

It is because he claimed to be "In a difficult position"

Rain in Aprica...not good news for Basso and his crappy descending skills!

I got a lot of respect for Sastre, but maybe not that much. All this prognostication is based on wishful thinking, anyway. So wish away!

I wish it wouldn't rain on Basso.

Garzelli and Failli did some pretty impressive stuff bridging up to the break (Failli dropping back for him)

It could all come to nothing on the Mortirolo though

my "send Nibali to attack on the descent" strategy didn't come to fruition....hmm...unless thats Nibali in Garzelli's kit!

that was a cool little cobblestone section at km 45...

The mountain villages are simply wonderful in the Giro.

Basso just accelerated, the Nibali card hasn't been played yet.

I didnt think Basso could drop Evans and still have Nibali there.

Me neither. Sucks.

Where do I go to watch it in streaming video, preferrably in italian?

http://videochat.gazzetta.it/index_giro.shtml

get out those rabbit ears!

I dropped my cable tv, here in CO we get Universal over the airwaves!

I havent seen a stream, but justin.tv is a good place to start...or that link right above my post...

Edit:
Didn't want to come across as an arsehole

The CNews tickerers are on fire!

www.cyclingfans.com has various links as well, micomico

Arroyo is reeeeeally fighting ... he may still cling on to pink!

And VINO ATTACKS!!! VINO WILL ATTACK!!

c-r-a-c-k

You were fine!

I was going to come back with "Sucks!" but theres no point now

I just like a little competition. I don't like Vino at all and I find myself rooting for him to catch up to the leaders...

Nibali looks relaxed....everyone else seems to be suffering hard...

It seems to me that Basso could be taking quite a bit more time if he reeeally put the hammer down, but he won't want to drop Nibali for the descent.

Arroyo drops Evans on the descent!

I've found the guy to root for!

Nibali looks like he'd riding his brakes trying to keep Basso on his wheel.


damn, Arroyo is going to crash...he's ripping.

Sh*te ... Basso could be caught on the descent

arroyo is going nuts! what class!

one of the best descents i've ever seen!!!!

What a race.

What a stage.

What a champion .... Arroyo! Way to go!

i wonder, how does someone be so good going uphill and so bad going down? anyway, great show by arroyo. this is why Basso had to kick arse going up.

is it me or is vino sort of a prick, seeing as he wants to win as well.

Vino and Arroyo just had words on the descent, ending with Vino flicking his hand. I wonder if the exchange was like this:

Arroyo: Now I have caught you on the descent, work for me!
Vino: Vino works for no one. Vino only attacks.

Well if Evans can't win it, at least Arroyo might. As long as that dirtbag Basso doesn't win the Giro I'll be glad!

(oh and Burkni I wasn't offended by what you wrote, don't worry )

What a stage so far! Arroyo showing some serious class!

Somehow I feel that an Italian should always win the Giro ... the tifosi somehow deserve it.
Let the Tour be the field of all nationalities but the Giro be where everyone comes to be clobbered by the Azzurri

Anyway, Arroyo will win this thing now and good on him!

I say better him than Evans, so you could say we have reached an agreement!

yeh, with a heavy kazakh accent for emphasis

scarponi is a bad man. those 3 are working well

sweet suffering

It seems that the Arroyo group has a rider or two too many to make inroads to the Basso group. That said, anyone could still blow up.

Scarponi for the stage.

Crap, he's losing ground again...

Wow Nibali, Basso and Scarponi stepping on the gas...Maglia Rosa group 2'24" back...Arroyo looks very close to losing la maglia Rosa.

leader on the road

Basso in pink he's got the pressure in tomorrow's stage and the final TT to defend la Rosa.

The second group certainly looks like they could do more ... but I guess nobody want to work with the leader.
Still, what do for instance Sastre and Gadret want out of this stage, hanging on like that??
And even if he has Arroyo for company, doesn't Evans mind letting Basso take more time??