Early Odds


2.80 Fabian Cancellara Fabian Cancellara 9/5
3.00 Tom Boonen Tom Boonen 2
12.00 Matti Breschel Matti Breschel 11
12.00 Thor Hushovd Thor Hushovd 11
14.00 Filippo Pozzato Filippo Pozzato 13
19.00 Juan Antonio Flecha Juan Antonio Flecha 18
23.00 Bernhard Eisel Bernhard Eisel 22
26.00 Edvald Boasson Hagen Edvald Boasson Hagen 25
34.00 George Hincapie George Hincapie 33
34.00 L Hoste L Hoste 33
34.00 Tyler Farrar Tyler Farrar 33
41.00 Stijn Devolder Stijn Devolder 40
51.00 Luca Paolini Luca Paolini 50
51.00 Peter Sagan Peter Sagan 50
51.00 Roger Hammond Roger Hammond 50
51.00 Stuart OGrady Stuart OGrady 50
51.00 Johan Vansummeren Johan Vansummeren 50
51.00 Manuel Quinziato Manuel Quinziato 50

Going for Breschel - I say he will be on the front at Carrefour de l'Arbre with Cancellara on his wheel who will let a gap form.

Unless something happens to Cancellara's form between now and then, I think Fabian playing the teammate for Breschel is the only thing that will Keep Cancellara from winning this as well. I however agree with Burkni. Cancellara has never been a person that was all about Cancellara. I think he will try to get a win for a teammate if he can. If for some reason Breschel is out of the lead group though, my money goes back to being on Spartacus.

Three is a charm - and that might apply to Breschel's mechanicals

A vote for Tommeke, based more on wishful thinking than a true belief that he can beat Cancellara. I admire Boonen's fight to the end yesterday, after Cancellara thoroughly humiliated him on the Muur. After such a thrashing, if I had been in Boonen's shoes I would have probably climbed off my bike, curled up in the fetal position, and cried. I know Boonen is talking a good game about how he was as strong as Cancellara . . . but come on, that was brutal.

Speaking of the Saxobank mechanicals, has anyone heard what they were. They appeared to be something other than punctures. I think maybe Breschel's first was a brake rub issue, but I never saw anything about what Cancellara's was.

Breschel had the brake rub after he got O'Grady's bike. No word on the rest.

Yeah, Cancellara got such an amazing gap on Boonen in such a short period of time that even the Heli camera's lost track of him coming off of the Muur and when they finally did spot him he had like 20 seconds on Boonen and all this while in a seated position. Scary stuff! Boonen's a little whiner when he doesn't win and things don't go his way. He did the same last year crying about his shadow Pozzato and how he couldn't shake him, yet his teammate Devolder didn't seem to have a problem losing both of them.

Tommeke's only chance at winning P-R is to be able to hang on to Cancellara's wheel until they get in the velodrome and hope he has enough left in the tank to take him on sprint. Cancellara's on the form of his life and I essentially see things playing out as they did in 2006 where he put the hammer down on the Carrefour against Boonen and it was game, set and match Spartacus!

When you think about it, this is Boonen's best chance at winning another major race the entire year. What does he have to his credit in 2010, a couple of sprint wins thus far? Let's face it, he's no longer the sprinter he once was and if Cancellara is the new king of the cobbles then where does that leave him? I suppose there's always the Eneco Tour, but Tommeke's pickin's are becoming slimmer by the year.

From a Velonews article on Cancellara's bike.



Cancellara's Specialized Tarmac SL3

So it looks like it was the same problem with both bikes, and a problem with SRAM's brakes.

Bodo, to come to Tommeke's defence I think that is an unfairly harsh judgement.
The way Pozzato rode last year one thought his sole objective was to make Tom lose races, so the shadow nickname was quite deserved. In such a tactical tangle, a second-tier rider like Devolder only has to be the strongest rider in a breakaway group to win ... he would never, ever have won if he wasn't on the same team as Tom.

As far as Roubaix is concerned, Cancellara will obciously be top favourite as the man in form. Things can change fast in a long race if a rider starts to cramp up however, as Tommeke claimed he had on the Muur, and Cancellara experienced himself in PR 2008. Not something one should expect necessarily but luck really is a factor in this race.

Finally, wrt his sprinting, I'd say that an honest 2nd place behind an untouchable Freire in MSR is just about as good as he has ever been in a sprint. Funny thing is that I think he needs the distance to be at the top, in a race of 200kms the faster guys are still fresh.

money is pouring in on canc:





2.88 Fabian Cancellara Fabian Cancellara 8/5 15/8 6/4
3.50 Tom Boonen Tom Boonen 9/4 2 5/2
8.50 Matti Breschel Matti Breschel 6 6 15/2
15.00 Thor Hushovd Thor Hushovd 13 14 14
17.00 Filippo Pozzato Filippo Pozzato 14 16 14
17.00 Juan Antonio Flecha Juan Antonio Flecha 16 16 16
26.00 Bernhard Eisel Bernhard Eisel 22 22 25
34.00 Edvald Boasson Hagen Edvald Boasson Hagen 33 33 25
34.00 George Hincapie George Hincapie 33 28 25
41.00 L Hoste L Hoste 33 25 40
41.00 Tyler Farrar Tyler Farrar 36 33 40
51.00 Luca Paolini Luca Paolini 50 50 50
51.00 Peter Sagan Peter Sagan 50 50 40
51.00 Roger Hammond Roger Hammond 50 40 50

Last year it was SRAM's chains snapping inexplicably, now this year it's their brakes!? C'mon, SRAM, get it together!

It's just an opinion/observation, Burk. I'm not asking you or anyone to agree with it, but it's my perspective of where he is right now whether you or anyone else likes it. Don't forget, this is coming from a Tommeke fanboy, so it's not like I have an axe to grind against him.


If those two were the strongest at RVV last year, the same as he and Cancellara were this year, then why not split the field and drag Pozzato with you to the line the and take your chances beating him in the sprint rather than ride defensively and allow your teammate to go up the road the same as he had done the year previous? Sorry, but I'm not giving Boonen a free pass there. Great riders don't need excuses when they don't perform up to expectations, they let their legs do the talking for them.


I agree with the luck factor, Burk, but do you really buy the cramping excuse? Sorry, but I don't. I didn't see him seize up and let off the gas going up the Muur for had he cramped do you really think he would have been riding as hard as he did out of the saddle? He's used that excuse in the past when he's come up short and it is what it is in my book, an excuse.

I've had my leg cramp on me in a race to the point I could barely turn the pedals over it hurt so bad, so if it had seized up on him as he claims then I don't think we'd have seen him ride as aggressively as he did out of the saddle.


In my view his second at MSR was a good finish, but where are the victories going to come from here on out? I honestly don't see him winning a sprint at the Tour if Cav is on form, and I wholeheartedly expect he will. He may nab a stage in the Dauphine or TdS (whichever prep race he does), but I think the wins for him this year will be few and far between for Tommy boy.

No one is saying you're not entitled to an opinion ... just differing


At the end of the day, it's about giving the team a win, even if you are a superstar.
Of course it's easy to speculate, but had Boonen done that, he would have got no end of flak from the media, Lefevre, and us wiseguys. The difference between the two last year was minimal, Boonen had already lost a sprint to him at E3 (due to gearing problems if you buy his excuse ... a replay does show that he has a ridiculous cadence)


In my experience of cramps (without wanting to make it a central issue) the more musclebound the athlete, the more likely they are to have cramps. Spartacus would thus be even more likely than Tommeke ...
With no intention of belittling you as a rider, I would venture the guess (again, into the blue) that pro athletes can deal with the cramping better than others and thus it wouldn't show that clearly?


True - the Tour will be very, very difficult for him. He will never beat Cav and no one in their right mind would ever cooperate with him in a break.

To wrap up my view of his Flanders performance, cramp or no cramp, he would not have beaten the beast that is Cancellara. If he made it up as an excuse, of course that's lame. What I did admire was that even knowing that he had no chance of catching him, he killed himself trying. A lot of top guys would have simply waited for the chase group and sprinted it out for second.

Boonen for me, P-R fits him like a glove...though I'm slightly worried about the loss of mass he 'suffered' this winter. Good for sprinting up hills, not so good for flying over cobbles.

I may be (and probably am) very wrong, but for a variety of factors I'm not expecting Saxo Bank to come away with the win. Breschel's still relatively inexperienced in finales of this calibre, Saxo's material looked pretty crummy in Flanders and Cancellara may repeat but I doubt it. He was so insanely strong Sunday that I don't think he'll maintain it another week. Those reasons and the fact that Boonen has a minor aura of invincibility in Roubaix, and so does Lefevere. Devolder may be getting in shape right in time and while rather weak in Flanders, the QST guys are more suited to P-R than Flanders (Hulsmans for example).

@ Bodo: While I agree that his sprint isn't what it used to be anymore, I think you're being a little harsh on him not being a winner anymore. 2nd in MSR, E3 and Flanders, arguably the 3 biggest one-day races of the season so far - that's not too shabby. And 2nd in the PT ranking so far!

As for whining, yeah, he does do that, but that's just riders telling themselves something to ease the pain I suppose. Kinda like Hincapie talking about going with Boonen and Cancellara. Rather unlikely (understatement) but maybe it's better that he tells himself that than thinking he's without a chance against these guys.

Btw: my wildcard for Roubaix is Sébastien Rosseler. If he makes it through Arenberg in a decent position he's capable of anything. Hushovd usually does way way better in Roubaix than in Flanders too.

Winning and having good results are two entirely different things. I feel as though you and Burk want to give Boonen a free pass merely for placing on the podium in big races, which is your prerogative, but he's not being paid the salary he is to finish second or third. He's being paid to win the big single day cobbled races, MSR and a few sprints along the way, if not the green jersey at the Tour. Let's face it, if he comes up empty at Roubaix and fails to win the green jersey at the Tour or the World Championship Road Race, this year will have been considered a failure by his standards and will leave him scratching his head as far as where he goes from here, as obviously the weight loss failed to produce the desired results. I think he, more than anyone at Roubaix, has the most riding on his shoulders seeing how Q.S. has no victories to speak of on the cobbles this year and likely won't have much to show in the way of victories when the spring classics are over, which is what their team is built for. It will be great to see how he handles it.

You're right that he isn't paid to do well but to win, of course, and I realise that his (classic) season will be considered a failure by him and his team if he does end up empty-handed. But it's not Boonen who's at fault here but his team - where is Devolder? Chavanel? Even Barredo? Sure, in the monuments a rider of his calbre should be able to win without much of a team, but it sure helps. Boonen's biggest help so far has been Maarten Wynants who, with all do respect for his abilities, isn't the best rider in the peloton by a long shot. From what he says in the papers I have a feeling Lefevere realises this as well. Boonen is as good as ever (arguably overall the best one-day rider this season) but his team isn't half of what it was the years before. Devolder's short return and pulling work in Flanders was literally the first time I've seen him in a race finale this season.

But true, not winning Roubaix would be a drama for QST. For Boonen too, but imho more for QST as a whole (the more because, as you pointed out, they haven't got much of a team for other types of races). And hey, look at Lotto last year: bleak season with zero results, only to win the Worlds, Paris-Tours and Lombardia in 3 weeks. Sometimes things can change really fast.

Of course winning is the name of the game ... trouble is that there is only one top spot and quite a few guys who absolutely have to win the race. And also true that Tom needs the big wins to come in, contract-wise.

Can't speak for VdB, but along the whole line of opinions, let's just say that my standard is considerably lower than Lefevre's and Tom's, at least I thought he rode like a champ.

I think Bodo thinks that too actually! He just differs on his stance on the winning/not winning thing, I think.

To me, Boonen only f*cked up in E3 where he was in the wrong position (3rd in the group) and let himself be gapped on that corner near the finish. In MSR he did everything perfectly but was beaten by the better rider and in RVV just about the same thing happened.

True - letting Flecha get between him and the Beast in the finale was a mistake of amateurish proportions ...

All good points, my friend and I would ask the same questions about his teammates. However one could argue the fact that once Breschel had his mechanical problems who was left from Saxo to shepherd Cancellara? No one. Yet he hid in the lead pack the last 70km's, same as Boonen, all the while conserving energy until the two of them escaped.

You of all people should know that the cobbled races are more about the individual than they are the team, as typically the strongest riders show themselves in the finale. Sure, it would be great to have a few teammates with you in a small select group and be able to play different tactics and cards, but that is usually the exception and not the rule. I doubt we'll see anything different play out in Roubaix and will see a select group of riders from different teams battling it out at the end, same as last year.

So while it's great to have a strong supporting cast, it's not necessarily a pre-requisite for winning these types of races. I think having a strong team comes more into play in the Ardennes classics than here, but that's just my opinion.


I agree wholeheartedly and like the fact we can disagree without it being personal, which none of this is, guys. I'd hope you'd know that first and foremost.


I thought he rode a great race as well but let's face it, Boonen at his absolute best is a slight notch below Cancellara at his. I think that point's been established now and it's a hard pill to swallow for him and perhaps Lefevre.

Cycling moment of the week so far:
Farrar's interview in Dutch after winning the Scheldeprijs

(hardly worth its own thread)

Why what happened?


I'm voting for "other" since Friere is not an option.... Because there are 2 overwhelming favorites this year, I think the cycling gods will throw down a untimely mechanical and/or puncture on the favorites and we will see a surpise winner such as Farrar.

He spoke such wonderful Americano-Dutch, that's what happened

I agree that Cancellera is the stronger rider of the two in terms of pure strength, but I don't think that necessarily needs to be a depressing realization for Boonen. For one, if they go to the line together Boonen will still beat him in the sprint most of the time. And tactically speaking Cancellara isn't a genius either (not that he needs to be , clearly ). Another factor is that the QST team this year doesn't have the same quality line-up as before because of some riders' form issues and the fact that Lefevere was sitting on a pile of cash to reel in Contador once he would have become available after the Astana contract troubles. Usually they have more pawns to play with in these races.

When it all comes down to it, Cancellara's palmares outside of TT's isn't on par with that of Boonen, yet. But now he's getting a little tired of always winning the TT's we may have to sing a different tune in a few years' time!! Maybe Sunday is another big step towards it already...

(and yeah, I know it's not personal I love being able to disagree and discuss in a friendly manner with you, instead of the usual internet troll doodoo throwing!)

Both Quick-Step and Saxo-Bank have superb Paris-Roubaix teams, and those two teams have absolutely dominated the race for the past five years. Nothing to suggest that this will change this year. So Cancellara or Boonen to win it. Based on Cancellara's form last week and just because Boonen has won it two years in a row now, I'll say Cancellara for the win.

Matti Breschel as my dark horse. That furnace is stoked with anger and Boonen and the others will have to be on their guard to prevent him from taking off.

Regarding Cancellara's tactical smarts, I thought both his PR and MSR wins were impressive examples of perfect timing. He may not be a genius, but he is certainly not the most obtuse rider in the peloton. Boonen and Cancellara are well-matched; Cancellara has the power advantage, but Boonen has the sprint advantage. Both - I think - will be riders who are mentioned when talking about legendary Cobble/Classics riders/rivalries in the future - we are fortunate to be able to follow Cycling history in the making.

Oh for sure, and to clarify i certainly didn't mean Cancellara is a dumb rider - just that he's made some questionable judgement errors in the past in the classics. But that may simply be because, unlike Boonen, he didn't grow up riding on the cobbles and the roads of Flanders and didn't have someone like Museeuw schooling him (who, for all his faults, did know a thing or two about classic racing).

Who are you peeps thinking of as dark horses/outsiders? For me...

Boom
Leukemans
Chainel
Oss
Quinziato
Roelandts

I just read that if old Dutchman Knaven finishes the race he'll equal Raymond Impanis' record of 16 Roubaix finishes! How cool is that?

I wonder how Sagan will do. He showed great form earlier this year at Paris-Nice. He is a mountain-biker so he'll be used to rough surfaces. But this is a long day for such a young guy.

I would love to see Knaven finish!

To continue the whole Boonen debate, I feel that he is making more and more questionable decisions in races - mainly attacking too early, a la Het Nieuwsblad this year. Same with Dwars door Vlaanderen I think.

If you have to depend on Versus for your coverage, note that while they have three hours for Paris-Roubaix, it is later than normal because of the Indy Car race. 6:00 to 9:00 PM in the USA Central Time Zone.

Wow, can't believe the HUGE group that's still in tact coming out of the Arenberg Forest. Can't ever recall seeing that many riders still together after that sector of cobbles. This is crazy!

No kidding! Less than 60 km to go now and the group is still at around 30 riders. Crazy!

Boonen asleep...

[Edit]
Wow. I've rarely seen a bunch of riders all content to ride for second place as the chase group today.

Cancellara is riding away while the losers in the chase group expect Boonen to do all the work. Ridiculous.

It's over. Spartacus has destroyed the field yet again! Boonen has ridden probably the dumbest race I've ever seen him ride. He chased way too many escapes, tried a dumb escape from too far out himself and then decides to have a drink at the back of the lead group at the worst possible time instead of shadowing his nemesis, Cancellara, who decides to take off at that very moment. Just tactically dumb and a complete waste of energy. It's not like he was the only protagonist without a teammate in the lead group. Cancellara didn't have anyone from Saxo with him. Pozzato didn't have a single teammate there either. So why Boonen didn't let those guys chase some of the escapes is confounding. If I didn't know any better I'd say Devolder's brain took over Boonen's body. LOL!

not merely dumb... it just looks like he doesn't have it in him... out of gas, hanging on for pride...

he's been bested. again.

The Bear is a beast, indeed!

I love watching Hoste yell at all of the other chasing riders each year to take their pulls, yet he can't make a race himself. His escape attempt was weak and was easily brought back. The only person he should be yelling at is himself for not being able to take care of business and relying on others to tow him. I won't miss him when he retires. Also, if I hear Hincapie talk after the race about what great legs he had but for whatever reason wasn't in the right place at the right time, I'm going to puke!

Agreed. Although he was caught with his pants down, figuratively, the only rider in that chase group that can hold himself with any dignity is Boonen (and perhaps Leukemans, at least he was up there for a while). Cervelo... why do they have two riders in the chase group when they won't spend one of them?

Hammond took a stab at an escape on one of the cobbled sectors with about 60 km to go, but he simply didn't have the engine or legs to make it stick. I still don't think Hushovd is in peak form yet and simply isn't able to do much of anything other than follow wheels.

Another rider that never seems to be able to make his own race is Flecha, as much as Smug loves him. But really, can that guy do anything other than chase wheels? When do you ever see him attack on his own and make the race? He barely takes pulls let alone attack.

edited to add: LMAO!! Just as I finished typing this Flecha attacks! Must of heard me complaining. ;-)

+1


+1

Pozzato is amazing - he started to pull and then almost immediately pulled over.
"There, my pull is done, back to you Tom!"

Boonen simply seems to have been the only guy from the get-go who was not racing for 2nd. Too bad he made some bad judgments.
As for Cancellara, this is bringing back bad memories from 2002

Anyone know off the top of their head what the largest winning margin has been in this race? I know Museeuw won by a couple of minutes or just shy of two minutes in 2002, but I can't recall anyone winning by this large a margin.

I think Museeuw had over 3mins.

Boonen has now lost contact and physically slapped Hammond to take a pull. Poor guy.

Noticed that my Directv listing has now moved the time to 5:00 to 8:00.

I just heard the guys on Cycling.TV say Merckx beat DeVlaminck (spelling?) in 1972 by a margin of 5 min.


Yep, between all the energy he wasted earlier in the race coupled with the emotional toll of being slapped around by Cancellara two weekends in a row has simply sucked the life out of him.

Nice attack by Hushovd and good counter by Flecha. Taking 20-30 seconds on Cancellara isn't bad either. It's just some 35km too late...

It's gotta be the Specialized bike, Burk. Notice it's been all downhill for Q.S. since switching to Merckx bikes. Shame on Lefevre for going with a local bike producer!


Yes, imagine what Hushovd's classic season could have been had he not been injured earlier in the year?

ouch! poor Tom...

E3-Prijs, Flanders and now Roubaix. Quite a triumvirate. Chapeau, Fabian!

And gets pipped for 4th by HAMMOND.
My heart goes out to him.

moi aussi!