So, the Austrians pass anti-doping legislation, and the following year, their skiiers drop off the map. 2 medals (so far) in 2010 alpine after 14 in 2006.

I believe their 2006 cross country/biathlon/nordic combined chances had already evaporated with Walter Mayer's credibility and welcome at the Games; in 2002 they had a 5 in biathlon/xc, before their apparatus was found in their quarters. They had 1 medal in 2006 in xc/biathlon. They have 1 xc/biathlon medal in 2010.

Other weird results: 3 cdn men in the top 10 in 30 km. Never been close to that before.

Hypotheses: Legislation wrecks sport programs? Public support drops when they know there are dopers? Can't dope, can't win? When doping slows, cdns improve?

You left out nordic combined from the 2006 and 2010 results. They won the 4x5k Gold in 2006 and just won it again for 2010 yesterday. Winning relays is particularly telling b/c a single heroic individual can't be used as an explanation. Then there's the Gold in the 2006 nordic combined sprint, won by Gottwald. The key fact: he was on the 2002 team.

Obviously Meyer's arrest put a serious dent in the doping program, but if there's one thing we know about doping it's that anytime a vacuum like that is created, it isn't long before the next guy steps up. And when you have a guy like Gottwald who spent more than a decade in a sophisticated doping program prior to this recent legislation, is it realistic to think he suddenly came clean and/or couldn't find the dope or the assistance b/c of the legislation? Or that he couldn't just carry on without Meyer? The results suggest otherwise.

As you point out, it's also possible that the results are not all the result of Austria going backwards. It's also possible that the results are a combination of Austria getting disrupted to some degree, and of others joining the party, or improving their methods.

As you point out, Canada is an obvious suspect. The Swedes have benefitted from some pretty awesome waxing decisions, but that's not enough to fully explain their surprising performance.

Along with Austria, the same observation could be made about Russia. They got disrupted too, and look at the huge falloff in their results. I think everyone's known just how doped they'd been in the past, so it's not much of a surprise.

In the end, doping is so prevalent in these sports, it's just like cycling -- there's little point in getting invested in the competitive results other than from an entertainment standpoint, as there's no way to know who would be winning what if the racing took place on a level playing field.

Points all well taken.

One theory on typical Canadan performance is that these athletes are typically not well funded - and certainly not well funded enough to get on any sophisticated programs (even though Canada has figured prominently in doping stories - including with Johnson, Jeanson, Tiger Woods' doctor, and was even Arnie Bakers' training ground). It is possible that the Canadian OTP financing could have had a leak or two, and that this has helped contribute to the (less than expected) 'success'.

But, doping is definitely going on.

Record breaking at the Richmond Oval, for example, was not expected. Track records are one thing, but Olympic and World records another. Not pointing fingers, just raising eyebrows.

I do take heart from Lister's post and that the Austrians are not as strong this time around. Hopefully we will not have any stories break about suicidal team officials who run from the athlete's village which they were not even allowed to visit.

Dave.

And at sea level, no less.

Add the Finns to the countries that are having difficulties after their doping program is disrupted. This was brought up by the French commentators yesterday during the 4 X 10km relay.

Incredible performance by the last Norwegan relayer.

The French are also taking full advantage of great "waxing" in X-country and especially biathalon.

Yes, I missed the nordic combined. Sorry about that.

Also, probably a wiser interpretation here:



http://www.sportingnews.com/olympics/artic...t-smaller-scale