http://politiken.dk/sport/cykling/article780582.ece

In short, his blood values at the end of the Tour are basically the what they were at the beginning of the Tour. In the period of 11.-14. july, his hematocrit rose from 40.7 to 43.1. Armstrongs blood values from the Giro does not show similar anomalies.

http://cdn-community2.livestrong.com/ver1....10a264.Full.jpg

Has anyone published Contador's values? It would be interesting to contrast them with Armstrong's. If AC's values declined during the Tour, like a normal human being's would, then the assumption might be that a clean Contador beat a doped up Armstrong, which would be a lovely thing to think about--but if his values parallel Lance's, then you could assume they were on the same program, which would lead to speculation about what's going to happen when Bruyneel and his no-one-on-my-squad-has-ever-tested-positive organization follow Lance to the Shack, leaving AC to follow in the path of Heras, Hamilton, Landis and other ex-Hog riders.

And both jumps in crit revolve around rest days:

July 11th - 40.7
July 13th - rest day
July 14th - 43.1

July 20th - rest day; 41.7
July 25th - Mt Ventoux; 43

Michael Rasmussen, 05.07.2007 - 40,3 Hct
Michael Rasmussen, 17.07.2007 - 43,1 Hct
Michael Rasmussen, 24.07.2007 - 43,9 Hct

It will/would be very interesting to hear what Rasmus Damsgaard has to say about this, because two years ago he was not shy about saying outright that the evidence suggested Rasmussen was doped. I really want to see the Danish media question RD on this subject, given that he supposedly still works as a consultant for Astana...

@Andrew: I wouldn't expect ever to see any kind of blood profile for Contador.

Here's where more data, which ought to be out there somewhere, would really be helpful. I would like to see the HT values of a bunch of riders, on the day before they started the Tour (when all the tests are done, I believe), then at one, two and three weeks into the Tour, or more often if available. If one could show that most or all riders really do exhibit a significant drop in HT over the Tour, the burden would be on LA to explain why his didn't drop.

Of course, this assumes all these other riders are clean. Maybe data from the pre-EPO era would be more helpful, though I don't know if HT values were routinely measured then. Certainly not very often, for very many riders.

One thing for sure. With a "normal" HT in the low 40s, LA is certainly in position to benefit greatly from EPO or blood transfusions.

It is fairly well known that Hematocrit normally falls by 1-3 points during a GT. Of course you can have individual reading being wrong (e.g., due to measuring errors, dehydration, or other factors), but there is no question that this is the normal behavior.

It is a pity that the 2008 CSC doping report is so unreadable, but if you can fight through the obfuscation you can actually identify a few of the riders who are clearly riding the Giro/Tour. Haven't had time to see if

Just to give an example from Rasmussen's other biopassport results:

Giro 05.05.2005 - 40,4
Giro 11.05.2005 - 39,8
Tour 30.06.2005 - 39,8
Tour 23.07.2005 - 39,2
Giro 04.05.2006 - 38,8
Giro 18.05.2006 - 39,0 (The only other result that bucks the trend, but he didn't race competitively in this race)
Tour 29.06.2006 - 40,4
Tour 22.07.2006 - 38,1
Vuelta 24.08.2006 - 39,1
Vuelta 13.09.2006 - 36,6

Of course, there is nothing to say that Rasmussen wasn't also doped these years, but nevertheless these results are much more in line with what one would normally expect to see in a rider competitive in a GT.

Edit:
Another comparison for reference - Basso during this year's Giro went: 44,0 42,8, 40,8, 39,7.

"armstrong does not look clean"

this is news?

Oh. My. God. What the.

This is so sick - the last ITT compared to Mont Ventoux was strange but this is... wow. Ferrari has seriously ####ed this up. Oh my freaking God, what a bad doper he is - I looked at those numbers and thought of Michael Rasmussen's numbers from the Tour 2007 which, as Strategy pointed out, are almost the same. This is just tragic comedy - I really thought he was back to show he was clean. UCI could get seriously humiliated if they don't take action here - at least they have to give him bucket load of tests, or, well, they're already doing that. Oh my God.

"Siberia is cold."

"The Pope is a Catholic"

I thought he had a shower?


Just keep the Kryptonite behind the lead shield. Otherwise, he will start to look human.

Dave.

these same scientists have concluded there are africans living in africa.

Additional details about the stuff that Mørkebjerg wonders about.

Apart from the hematocrit/haemoglobin spike, the reticulocyte values also puzzle Mørkebjerg.

Brief summary of Mørkebjergs comments:
He points out that off season, the values lie around 1%, which quite normal. But come Tour time, the reticulocyte values have fallen to half that - 0,5%. Firstly, Mørkebjerg notes that this is borderline for a normal, healthy person. Secondly, he observes that this indicates that Armstrong's body has halved its own production of red blood cells, which is a significant drop off.

This usually only happens at times when the body has an excess of red blood cells and is often seen with EPO usage or blood transfusions, though he of course points out that this is not proof that this has occured in this instance.

He notes that Armstrong's values are more or less as one would expect that they should be during the Giro. His Hct and Hgb values fall as they would be expected to, and his Reticulocyte vary from 1,3% over 0,7% to 0,9%.

It is the TdF results which he finds unusual, both in their own rights, as well as in comparison to the Giro numbers:
1. No decrease in Hgb/Hct by the end of the race (the earlier reports also noted the variations coinciding with the rest days).
2. Extremely low reticulocyte results. They were down to 0,5 by the start of the race, rose to 0,7% after the first week of the race and then went down to 0,5% again after the first rest day. At the end of the race, they had once again risen to 0,7%.

great stuff, strategy. what irks me about all this is the scorn heaped on vino and other folks who have been caught. with armstrong, the problem's with everybody else. i'm sure you can start substituting "danish" for "french." after all, the danes could have more helpful in operation iraqi freedom.

Just found this right now



http://twitter.com/lancearmstrong

Edited to make it clear that I would never use the word Wow as a written sentence.

I love how he says "wow".

Looks like a few "withdrawals" were made last winter and "deposits" made in July. No surprise there.

Love the follow-up Tweet:



As usual, softens up and backs off from the previous Tweet. Apparently, 7 am is still shockingly early for LA. For the real world, not so much.

Seems the Norwegians were caught by the Lance-fever after his visit here a few week ago.

In the Norwegian papers, Thor Hushovd has spoken to defend Armstrong, and now a Norwegian Professor at the Blood Bank in Oslo comes out in LA's defence.

Brief summary, he questions that it is possible to read anything from the lack of stability in the measurements and talks about varying hydration being the reason for the variance in the measurements. He also - correctly of course, and Mørkebjerg states the same - point out that the results cannot be used as proof of doping (all values are within acceptable limits).

and if the glove don't fit, you must acquit.

Which is why I would like to see numbers from a bunch of riders. Of course the conventional wisdom is that HT must go down during a GT. The question is, how reproducible is the phenomenon? Floyd was convicted because one of his delta values was three standard deviations beyond that for a pool of control subjects. I want to see HTs from a pool of GT riders. Maybe these data could show that a rise of 2-3 % in the HT is several SDs beyond the mean of a pool. Again, the problem is knowing that the pool is clean. On the other hand, if it's dirty, an abnormal deviation would be even more remarkable.

Mørkebjerg needs to wait until Lance edits the values, as he did with his HCT posted scores. Then everyting will make sense and the puzzle will be solved resolved.



Hmmm:

1. I promise to pay for my own test program and will make everything public.
Really! Wow! (I can be accused of the one word sentence. It is even a palindrome!)
2. I need to take a shower
Err, ok?
3. I'm at the Tour, and this is too early
Err, ok?
4. How about a nice cup of coffee
Err, nope.

Damn, if he ain't running out of excuses.

Dave.

Good post.

I've bolded the sentence that stands out most to me. I, too, would like to see this, but am skeptical about getting a broad selection of clean, untainted samples. An impossible dream?

@ danish sci you guys are fools .....Lance is the greatest ever to ride the tour de france.

Funny thing is the raise is exactly what one would get from one unit of red blood cells. It is almost like he could not give a sh*t because he knows there is no way to ever prove this. He is above it all. It would almost seem like a big crash is coming, like the one that brought down all the baseball players.

Wow. Only 1 1/2 pages of replies since this news broke. Normally this type of thing would be at 10+ pages by now.

I guess Amstrongs typing "SSDD" holds true on the DPF fourm as well.

Check out this graph from Cobber over at the CN forums:

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?...p;postcount=219

Perhaps the promoters are learning that this isn't the best place to make their clean as a whistle argument. Too many people with actual brain cells here. Kind of like conceding that Africans come from Africa (smug that was hilarious).

Or, perhaps even they themselves are getting tired and embarrassed by it.


As usual, Armstrong is 'off the charts'. Natural gifts and other gifts?

Dave.

Absolutely. A little autologous doping. Undetectable. Just like previous years. A totally in-house, small circle of confidants. Exclusive. No chance of Fuentes-like records being made public. Top shelf and tailor made. Cleaner peloton so a little means a lot.

Biopassport? Forget about it. The lawyers are standing by. The UCI would never prosecute.

In all fairness to Armstrong, he would have been a fool not to if he wanted to be up there with the leaders.

Damsgarrd

http://www.velonews.com/article/97468/dams...nce-armstrong-s

excellent post.

Isn't this exactly the sort of fluctuation and variation in blood values that Damsgaard was supposed to be keeping an eye out for among "his" riders?

Yeah -- Stop by my house at 0650 and and I've already been at work for an hour and a half



sorry can't stop laughing -- I can't imagine the insulated fantasy world he lives in !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well money talks I am sure. What boggles the mind is that LA posts these results showing clear doping. He does not even hide it like years past. That type of arrogance will get someone in trouble at some point. A full surveillance of him by the police during the tour could nab him. That maybe the next step, unless the higher political pressure which may come all the way from Sarkozy, keeps the pressure off.

This can not go on forever eventually he is going to piss off someone that matters in his inner circle and his house of cars will come crashing down.

True. Hypothetically speaking, what would be a physiological reason for this kind of result without doping? He's riding with higher intensity during the races, probably more diligent about what he eats, possibly eats more? More iron and protein -> more red blood? It's amazing that it is timed as it is. Is that even practical? What kind of hydration levels are we talking about to cause that sort of swing? Like he had an extra cup of coffee that morning? Or like tannish-brown urine because his body is seriously low on water? So maybe his body is in full bore rbc production mode and then on the rest day the intensity drops so much that it spikes like that?

So he has much more money than most in this sport, if you sue or challenge him, he can fund a fully lawyered up response. Likewise, viewers tune in for him, nobody wants to see him miss a race or turn in a positive. If he posts all this stuff and it becomes defacto excepted as plausible data because it cannot be challenged effectively then what does that do long term? It establishes a "normal" that's completely abnormal. That, to me, is a bigger concern and a huge step backwards.

Sadly, much as expected.



Someone should ask him why he didn't feel this to be the case back in 2007 when he was evaluating Michael Rasmussen's blood profile.

I should patent the descriptor "Armstrong Quixote Syndrome"

Just keep tilting at those windmills, you mad ####ers. Meanwhile, Lance tours the world, furthering the anti-cancer cause and inspiring cyclists of all levels.

Here, the focus is on the results of science which you don't understand to prove doping accusations which are also beyond your comprehension. Clearly, the only thing you're trying to satisfy is your own personal inadequacy.

Win win vs lose lose ... or Lance's world vs DPF ...

Guess why I chose the former and ditched the latter (apart from this singular aberation)

I really think you have it spot-on, right there.

yes. succinct. and on the money.

It would be nice to know Catlin's thoughts. Knowone will speak in fear that the hammer will come down on their heads and they will be left penny less defending a lawsuit.

Depends on the lawsuit, and who the other party is.

Allegedly Greg won his.

Lance's bark is much worse than his bite.

Dave.

7


haha


so sorry your danish guy is a fruad.



keep dreaming of a nonpositif.

Dear Mr. Ball,

Your time here is going to be very short if all you are going to do is (attempt to) antagonize other people.

Shorter message: Contribute, shut up, or leave.

Thanks in advance for your cooperation.

You use the singular, do you know something we don't?

Apparently, but it's only that "pelota" is singular.

It could be a bunch of pelotums. Isn't the plural of scrotum scrota?

http://www.localcyclist.com/2009/09/a-tale-of-two-cyclists/

So, I went to a cycling forum and a debate about Latin second declension nouns broke out.
Maybe pelota is first declension, then the plural would be pelotae.