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Pechstein, 37, is believed to be the first athlete banned over data gathered in a biological passport. The ISU introduced the screening method in 1999 and suspicious results can be sanctioned as a doping offence since this year.
This could be a landmark case. RH is more familiar with the details than I am, but the passport as now used is new, and did not exist as such in 1999. Back then, there was screening for hematocrit and reticulocyte count, resulting in off-scores which could indicate an athlete was under suspicion (as happened with Tyler, not long before he failed the homologous blood test). They could not be used then to suspend an athlete, nor could those data today by themselves be so used. The passport incorporates more parameters and uses formulas to estimate the statistical significance of a deviation of these parameters from a pre-determined baseline.
This case could prove to be every bit as controversial as Floyd's was. If the prosecution is successful, any cyclist who flunks a passport test has reason to be worried. And btw, whatever happened to those 4-7 riders who were supposedly going to be announced before the Tour?
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The judge said that Pechstein must explain the abnormal blood values while the ISU must cement its ruling with facts.
Pechstein will probably argue that the parameters can be affected significantly by a variety of conditions, including certain diseases, maybe certain kinds of training or unusual physiological states, and may try to produce data showing large fluctuations in supposedly normal controls. She might also argue that her physiology is not typical. I'm not sure what "facts" the prosecution can produce, other than studies demonstrating that its statistical methods are valid. They may have data from athletes who were busted for CERA or other forms of EPO that showed passport fluctuations during the period of suspected doping. However, the fact that a known doper had passport violations does not prove the converse, that passport fluctuations indicate doping.