Campi Bisenzio - Bologna (San Luca), 172km

Back to the GC race. This stage has four intermediate climbs, ending with a short but steep one. DiLuca needs to gain time on Menchov, and put more time between himself and Levi. Can he win this stage and get the time bonus? Will he try to? He’s won here before at another race, and even the name seems to favor him.

One way to prevent that would be to send someone out on an escape. Let DiLuca push himself for a few seconds at the finish, as long as others get there first and snatch up the bonuses. I think Astana really misses Horner here. What about LG and their two cards? At some point they have to play one of them. What about Simoni? I don't think he counts himself out of the podium race yet.

Will there be repeated attacks by people who matter, or will everyone play it conservatively ahead of the more critical stages ahead?

Looking at the profile that ending climb looks like an absolute wall.

Intriguing stage. Only one team wants the peloton together at the bottom of the final climb. LPR could possibly make it happen but may have to burn a lot more matches than they'd like to

This is the stage I've been looking forward to the most. The finishing climb is the one used in Giro dell' Emilia (my favourite race of all). It's absolutely beautiful. There is this fantastic medieval wall all the way up the climb. 'The race under the arches', as it is also called.

It a very steep climb. Giro dell' Emilia is so selective that even riders who can't sprint a damn - Fränk Schleck, Michael Boogerd, Jan Ullrich - have won here. Danilo Di Luca won the race last year, so at least we know it suits him.

The climb ends with the Santuario della Madonna di San Luca; a church dedicated to the saint Madonna, Bologna's guardian angel.


Pez has a wonderful feature about the race: http://www.pezcyclingnews.com/?pg=fullstory&id=4428

Surprisingly, the Giro maps don’t contain altimetry for the last climb.

The Google says it is 2 km long averaging 10% with maximum slopes of up to 18%.

I recon the total climbing effort (from bottom to the finish) will last about six and a half to seven minutes.

If the favorites are still together at the bottom, the strongest climber should attack there.

The pace of the race before the finale will dictate a lot about the result. An opportunity to tire out those you think are weakening.

This has DiLuca written all over it. Time bonus and seconds. Unless he can be dropped, and I would be surprised, given what we've seen so far, he should be the favorite.

Astana Time! We are at the point of the race where their strength in numbers has to go to work for them. I expect to see destruction on stages 14, 16, 17 and 19. These are the stages that a rider of Rubiera's pedigree earns his keep. They've got to set it up so that Levi has a launching pad from which to create separation from Menchov and D.D., as neither will have teammates left when it counts. If Astana's not as strong as I think they are, then Levi's going to have to do it on his own and I'm not sure he can. But this is where the rubber meets the road and where the race will be decided.

Yes, decision time for the contenders - try and grab the jersey on this stage then defend it on the other tough stages, or not burn too many matches with some big climbing stages still to come after this one.

Levi has been more aggressive this year (see California) but will he go on the attack here? I'm thinking that the favourites will be watching each other and someone else will sneak away for the stage win but no change to the overall...

Basso too (won it in 2004 and took second in 2002) and Simoni (200, 2005). The finish really has massive climbers duel written all over it, so it should make for some really interesting watching. I think anyone who is intending to be a contender needs to show his colors now. Di Luca will certainly attack which will force a reaction from the other favorites.

The Google says it is 2 km long averaging 10% with maximum slopes of up to 18%.

ouch! i do those kinds of climbs all the time (short, sharp walls abound in this area of ohio) and with the pro pace and distance it's really going to hurt to make the big effort at the end. may the best man power his way to the sanctuary!

i'll be at machinegun shoot tomorrow morning. i hope someone brings a high-zoot lap top for me to watch behind the firingline.

Pozzato has withdrawn from the Giro citing knee problems from his crash the other day..

Big break up the road and I didn't get all the names but here are some:

froome cheula gavazzi grivko kiriyenka
visconti

4'26" is the time gap..

Won't miss him. He was just spinning his wheels aimlessly anyway. He's essentially a become a classics rider - nothing more, nothing less and won't ride for anyone but himself. I don't even know why he bothers showing up at GT's, to be honest? It's not like he has any impact besides getting the occasional stage win. About the only thing that will be missed is his hair.

He looked pretty good in those jeans he has on today..

Any predictions?

I think part of this break will go all the way. Six of the 14 in the break are in the top third in GC.

GC:

29 Christopher Froome (GBr) Barloworld 14.05
38 Eduard Vorganov (Rus) Xacobeo Galicia 23.31
39 Andriy Grivko (Ukr) ISD 23.58
40 Evgeny Petrov (Rus) Team Katusha 27.06
45 Simon Gerrans (Aus) Cervelo Test Team 32.59
64 Giovanni Visconti (Ita) ISD 49.04

yes all the chasing LPR are doing is dumb...

yeh but if DD is in position at the base of San Luca.....

Umm.. that's at the end however.. we are a long ways from that.. I am cross..

LPR e Di Luca svegliati!

Where is Garzelli? Haven't seen any sign of him.

Bunch of red at the front now.

Does seem odd, now that they're not chasing with 7km to go...

This looks like a spring classic finish.

Those guys are doing the "mail man" up the final segment. ouch.

They did make their sponsor LPR very visible for much of the chase.

Not nearly the defining stage that I thought it would be, but a cool stage nevertheless. 16 and 17 will make or break this race.

The things that are on my mind:
- LPR spent a lot of energy today for nothing
- Levi shows more signs of fatigue
- Menchov looks strong
- Basso will carry water for Pelli from now on

That was the stupidest piece of riding by a team I've seen in a while.. LPR made a gross gross miscalculation today..

I thought today went about as well as Basso and Leipheimer could have possibly imagined

Advantage Menchov today. Lost no time or bonus seconds.

I don't think Basso will carry water for Pellizotti from now on (stage 16 is much more Basso territory), but he showed distinct signs of weakness today. This will not be his Giro.

This is definitely Menchov's race to lose, now. He is looking as strong as we are used to seeing him in the Vuelta.

LPR were really stupid. Way to go, Di Luca... here I spend lots of time praising your tactical cunning, and then you go and do stuff like this today.

Leipheimer as anonymous as... Leipheimer. I really don't see where he is going to take the time to beat either Di Luca or Menchov. Perhaps he needs to look back now...

Sastre isn't in top form, but still dangerous. He and Pellizotti are definitely contenders for the podium.

I don't think LPR got their tactics wrong. Perhaps they shouldn't have let such a strong breakaway get away, but they were always going to have to do the bulk of the chasing. Unfortunately for them, none of the other teams were willing to help them.

Huh?? LPR had no business burning their guys up with such a large powerful break up the road with that big of a time advantage. Not to mention the weather during the stage was a barn burner.. It was Menchov's team who should have been in the front for the maglia rosa or Liquigas or Astana. LPR rode just plain dumb today..

LPR were the team with most obvious benefit from bringing the break back. Di Luca needed a chance at those bonus seconds - he has, after all, won on this climb less than a year ago. It didn't work, but they had to try.

What are the LPR domestiques there for, except to give Di Luca a chance on stages like this? They were never going to be there for the crunch times on Monte Petrano, Block Haus and Vesuvius anyway.

with that breakaway it was illogical to do what they did.. they could have let other teams work the front and when the San Luca came, Danilo could have hit them hard and gotten some time there perhaps. If that break would have been smaller with weaker riders and a smaller time gap.. I would agree with you, but that scenario didn't play out today. Tomorrow's stage is even more difficult and it was expected going into today, that Danilo would be isolated tomorrow. That's not a great reason to burn your team out on a hunch.. RTT is not a happy camper this hour.. thank goodness my vacation starts tomorrow..

Have to agree. DiLuca needed the break to be caught way more than any of the other favorites. The rest of the teams were smart.

Sure, but they did too little too late, and ended up just spending a lot of energy for a long time.



Yes
Do you think it was fatigue, or what we already know, which is that he doesn't have punchy climbing ability
Yes
Yes. Basso isn't what he was.

They did. They mistimed it a bit, and burned the matches for nothing. Had they caught the break, a 2 k difference it seems, they'd be looking pretty good right now, 'cause DiLuca would likely have more bonus seconds.

That's road racing!


By the way, congrats to Gerrans! Great win. He's a gritty rider.

I wonder if Di Luca realised late on that he wasn't that good today. They seemed to call off the chase at a stage when they still had a decent chance. This wasn't the same Di Luca as on the Pinerolo stage

Bad day for Simoni - finished alongside Dave Millar ! Every time the road goes up this year he goes backwards

I can see both sides of the LPR debate, on one hand DiLuca's Giro winning strategy hinges on winning stages like this, collecting the 20 second win bonus with maybe 10-20 second actual gap to get ahead of Menchov. So it would behoove LPR to reel in a break so Danilo can do his thing. On the other hand, with a strong break up the road it might have been prudent to call off the dogs and let them save energy for another day. They might have gotten lucky with another team working to bring the break back.

I think today was almost a best-case scenario for Levi. He only lost 3 seconds, with a DiLuca stage win like everyone was predicting, he would have lost a minimum of 20 seconds and probably more. This type of climb will NEVER be Levi's thing. It's too short and too steep. It's for the guys like DiLuca, Pellizotti, Cunego (well, he used to do well on climbs like this) and Valverde. If it was another 10 km longer then Levi might have outlasted them.

The tough thing is that Levi MUST drop Menchov and DiLuca on one of the big remaining long climbs. I can see Danilo fading on one of the long ones but Menchov looks very, very good. I picked DiLuca in the mid-race favorites poll but right now I would change that to Menchov. Today might have been the day that DiLuca lost the Giro.

I wasn't impressed with Astana's tactics either. Their goal for this stage shouldn't have been to minimize Leipheimer's time losses to Di Luca, but to make Rabobank work and to pilfer a few seconds from Menchov (as I believe that he is the much bigger threat). It would not be such a bad thing for Leipheimer if Di Luca had the pink jersey. Then Menchov would have to attack and Leipheimer could counterattack off of that. It would be much easier to drop Menchov after he tires himself out attacking. As it is now, all Menchov has to do is mark others at his leisure.

Astana should have used the tactics that the Cervelo Test Team used. Cervelo sent riders into the break to set up Sastre for potential time gains and when there wasn't any significant attacking from the favorites, Cervelo had to settle for the stage win.

I would like to see Astana working with Liquigas perhaps for the rest of the Giro and with LPR in stage 15 and for most of stage 16.

Apparently the brain of LPRs Ds started his vacation today.

He complained during the stage that he was not getting any help, but he really missed the boat. They should have put a couple of their men up front early to pull back the break, which had about 14 riders from numerous teams, including Katusha, Lampre, Quickstep, before they got so much time.

If Bruyneel had been in the same situation early in the race, he would likely have picked up the phone and done what he could to assure himself that he would have help somehow, or in the absence, sent a couple of men up front to close it down before it was too late.

Matches burnt. However, Menchov rode strongly again, and even if DD got first, he would have likely been right on his wheel, or perhaps won again, and he did earlier in the giro, also earning bonus points. Menchov did not have to go past DD today since no bonuses were at stake. It is not a given DD would have put time on him, but it was the right strategy to try.

I am surprised that such an experienced captain as DD is didn't insist, if indeed he didn't, to the Ds to not let the gap open like that. He knows these roads very well.

DD said after the race that he called off his men with around 50K to go, knowing they could not catch up, but they kept trying for some time after.

The frustation with Liquigas is emotionally understandable but strategically off base. Menchov in the TT climbed better than any of the other leaders, looked strong, the race was fairly short, Basso did not have the terrain to put in his long, high-sustained pace efforts to detach himself, and DD likely had an advantage over Pellizotti in this type of finish; why risk bonus point to DD?

I expect Monday to see Liquigas up front and driving it.

Lance finished some time behind. DC mentioned yesterday he is two kilos heavier than usual.

Levi cant punch on 16% gradients.

He needs to open up full gas on the climbs after a big lead out from Lance and Popo and give it all he's got.
The big lead out to put everyone on the limit and then full gas.

Thats his only hope that his TT ability and climbing can lead to some separation on the longest climbs, to take away DiLuca's punch.

Levi and Lance as experienced GT riders will get stronger as the race goes on.
That is their card to play.

Lance knows he cant contend so why redline on the final climb.

The unknown is whether DiLuca will stay as strong and wheterh Menchov will have one of his famous joiurs sans. At this point, netiehr of those look likely. DiLuca looks strong and Menchov also. But why the desperation in LPR chasing.

i hated missing the video of this stage. the finish sounded great. a fantastic ride by gerrans!

I don't see that Levi and Basso had a bad stage. Levi is hanging in there, 3 seconds is not a big deal. The big tests will come next week. If he can't drop DiLuca and even Menchov on those long sustained climbs, then he shouldn't win the Giro. But assuming he isn't starting to tire--and he might be, considering how long this spring he has been at or near peak--his best stages should be yet to come. Remember, this is a guy who Contador couldn't shake in the Vuelta last year.

Same with Basso. I think he should do better on the long, sustained climbs. I don't see that up to now the difference between him and Pelli is so much that LG should throw all their eggs in one basket. Play them both. Anyway, I kind of like that he's not as good as he was in 2006. IF he is truly clean--and who knows, but if--it shows that while his doping did make a big difference, he's still a very decent rider without it.

Unfortunately, I think you're right actually..



I think Fabio needs his head examined. Why on earth should the other teams help LPR? They're too trying to win, no? I think LPR and DD need to take a step back and start re-calculating their tactics.. if it isn't already too late..



My opinion of Basso- he should be carrying water for Pellizotti he hasn't shown me squat to merit even being team leader much less anything else. Pellizotti has shown me grinta and it appears he's riding for himself anyways..

It may be up now... it was definitely reminiscent of a spring classic. I like that there have been some stages like this in the Giro and even the Tour lately. Keeps it interesting.

I don't think anyone had a bad 14. LPR's been receiving lots of criticism but they seemed to be cruising along obviously in the front but not necessarily working too hard and the rest of the pack seemed content to sit in. I didn't see any break attempts so maybe there was some success in their containment.. The leading break maintained a pretty consistent distance with strong players but they didn't seem to be making desperate moves or working real hard or in unison. Was there a tailwind? Cause while LPR pulled for so long the pack seemed really stretched at times from what I recall.

The last climb seemed not to be taken as seriously by the GC, or by the motocams(?) cause usually they stalk certain riders particularly when they're in close proximity to thick layers of fans. Campybob didn't miss that much.

Didn't go online last night, but looking back now, two images that struck me more than others during this stage:

- LA getting a bottle for Bottle (and seeing LL's right hand come out after he'd taken the bottle and either gesture to his grand new domestique or pat him on the hip - the moment went by too fast for me to see what that hand actually did).
- Chris Froome weaving from left to right, all over the road behind Gerrans, on that final climb. If nothing else, that alone showed me how bad that climb was.

But Gerrans was in his seat turning the pedals over, It showed how bad the climb was but it also showed Froome had the wrong gearing on his bike, or he was having trouble with his shifting.

Oh. And I thought Gerrans was just that much stronger than him