Vino, anyone else suspicious? Options

[one-mint-julich]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, we all love to watch him attack, he animates the race, we all missed him like hell the past couple of years. But...

He appears to be just as strong as he was when he was suspended three years ago. He attacked on stage 12, gave his all, and just got passed at the end. Instead of being exhausted by the effort, he comes back the very next day, attacks again, and wins the stage. Tired today? Nope, leads Astana much of the way, and finishes a fairly tough mountain stage less than a minute behind Schleck/Contador, ahead of a lot of GC hopefuls.

He hasn't gone on any long solos, which would really sap him, and with Schleck and Contador pussy-footing through most of the race, you could argue that Vino hasn't had to exert himself much except in moments. And GC-wise, he got a big boost from stage 3. But taking all this into account, he still looks to me very much like the rider who last rode the Tour in 2007.

This is not exactly the rule for dopers making a comeback. Has Millar been better on his return? No way. Tyler? Not even close. Floyd? Ditto. What about Basso? He won the Giro again, but he didn't dominate it the way he did in 2006, and in the Tour now he doesn't look like the Basso who rode the Tour in 2005. His Giro win may have sapped him a little, but in 2006 he was planning to ride the Tour after destroying the field in the Giro, and no one would have expected a performance then like the one he's doing now. In 2005/2006, he was one of the best climbers in the world, and had become a very good TTer. Based on the Giro, he's still a very good climber, but not at the peak he was before, and his TTng is considerably worse.

And there's Armstrong. He certainly has not ridden like the LA of old. Last year he podiumed, but he needed a lot of breaks to do that, he was basically a top ten climber and maybe not a top ten TTer. This year, of course, he has collapsed completely.

Armstrong is almost 39, so you could argue age is a major contributing factor, but Vino is almost 37. In other words, only a year younger than LA was last year. I guess you could argue the year or whatever he was off the bike he was able tor rest and recover, but you could say that LA had three years to recover.

The bottom line is this: He was blood doping in 2007, and now he is riding just as well as he was then. There aren't a lot of explanations for this other than the obvious one. Is he clean in a clean field, whereas three years ago he was doping in a doped field? But if that's the case, what happened to all the other riders who couldn't come back from a doping suspension or other long layoff?

Sorry to rain on the Vino parade, but IMO he's accomplished something that a lot of other suspended riders haven't been able to pull off.

[D-Queued]

...

And there's Armstrong. He certainly has not ridden like the LA of old. Last year he podiumed, but he needed a lot of breaks to do that, he was basically a top ten climber and maybe not a top ten TTer. This year, of course, he has collapsed completely.

...

Me, I'm going to quote tech guy Paul Kedrosky's Tweet:

@pkedrosky I know, I know, they're all doped -- but hugely enjoying today's mountain stage of TdF

As for trying to compare Vino and Armstrong, Armstrong gave the camera a smile when he came off today. Looked like he was riding slightly above room temp.

Thus, I cannot say that one is doping and the other not. Perhaps JB's eyeball can be more discerning.

Dave.

[smug]

he wins at liege and has brilliant attacks, but i wish he would take something so that his high mountain legs will come back. that's been lacking in the giro and the tour.

[Jayhawk]

I was surprised to see him so strong today. But I am suspending reason until after the TdF. For now, I am enjoying how Vino is lighting up the peloton.


p.s. I still wish O.P. had occurred after the 2006 TdF. Being deprived of the Ullrich/Basso showdown was tough for this fangirl to bear.

[ancien equipier]

He was blood doping in 2007

Well, we don't really know what he was doing in 2007.

I always thought the problem for Vino and Kash in 2007 (probably also for Hamilton and Perez in 2004) was some cutting-edge Russian injectable product that was tainted, thus producing the unexpected blood result. Thus Vino (like Tyler et al) had the cover of being able to say that they hadn't transfused blood. (FWIW, I figure there must've been a similar problem that led to Floyd's positive ...) I imagine that Vino learned from his mistake, and is being more careful and not longer taking anything unproven ...

[smug]

vino wins by attacking unexpectedly, not by overpowering the strongest riders in the race. when he won at liege this year, he wasn't able to follow the major move of gilbert, schleck and then contador, but then countered on a downhill for the win. his first win at liege he attacked 90 kms from home. he won at amstel by attacking downhill, and on and on. he's a strong rider, but attacks where the strong least expect it. (and after ever failed attack, he's always criticized for his stupid attacks.)

back to liege, i've seen every edition since 1990, and the winner always wins on ste nicolas, by attack on the false flat into ans, or on le redoute. vino won his races at the strangest points.

saying that he's doping would imply others aren't and both assumptions are hard to know. it's more likely that he's a very strong rider and who has a very keen tactical sense and great time trialling skills to keep the gap. oh, also, he's cold blooded and will suck wheels when he has to -- ask brad mcgee about champs elysees, another place where the attacker never wins but vino did.

This post has been edited by smug: Jul 19 2010, 02:26 AM

[Burkni]

@smug: There is no such thing as an unexpected Vino attack. Vino will attack.

@OMJ: Agree on all points, and especially as he has shown no fake remorse like e.g. Basso, I don't have any doubts ... I'm just sure! Even so, he entertains me immensely and I cheer his every attack (even though I don't necessarily believe they will stick) Hell, I would cheer him to take the yellow in Paris!

@Jayhawk: Agree on OP. Selfish, but us fans can dream, right?

[N.B.O.L.]

@smug: There is no such thing as an unexpected Vino attack. Vino will attack.

Burkni, General Custer disagrees with you. (At least the General Custer from 'Little Big Man').

Nothing in this world is more surprising than the attack without mercy!

This post has been edited by N.B.O.L.: Jul 19 2010, 02:46 PM

[frenchfry]

Never liked Vino, probably never will. Certainly this TDF isn't an indication that he has changed his ways.

[one-mint-julich]

For Vino lovers, there is a must-read little biography at: http://cozybeehive.blogspot.com/2010/07/quiet-goombah.html

"Vino became known as one of the hardest of cycling’s hard breed: the Eastern Bloc goombahs; riders who had been selected as children, their growth plates and femurs carefully measured by state examiners, their biotype profiles matched against that of a “superior child,” and who were duly whisked away to the barracks of various sports schools throughout the Soviet empire. Once there, their life became an endless series of training exercises, the governing philosophy of which was summed up by a former coach: “You throw a carton of eggs against the wall, then keep the ones which do not break.” "

His parents were reported to have been chicken farmers in Petropavlovsk, but he would not speak of it. When he did speak, which was about once a week, it was in short, pointed sentences, so simple that it was like listening to Japanese poetry :

I will ride hard today.
The hill is not steep.
I will attack them. "

This post has been edited by one-mint-julich: Jul 19 2010, 09:41 PM

[shag]

Is he clean in a clean field, whereas three years ago he was doping in a doped field?

Maybe a cleaner field . . . how many stages have the French won this year???

[sweatpea]

Maybe a cleaner field . . . how many stages have the French won this year???

It really must be a cleaner field if the French are winning stages.

[Kiwi]

Never liked Vino, probably never will. Certainly this TDF isn't an indication that he has changed his ways.

+1

Good thread. I was thinking about this very topic over the weekend...