Danish scientist: Armstrong does not look clean Options

[Maya]

Absolutely. A little autologous doping. Undetectable. Just like previous years. A totally in-house, small circle of confidants. Exclusive. No chance of Fuentes-like records being made public. Top shelf and tailor made. Cleaner peloton so a little means a lot.

Biopassport? Forget about it. The lawyers are standing by. The UCI would never prosecute.

yes. succinct. and on the money.

[lakeArrowheadrider]

It would be nice to know Catlin's thoughts. Knowone will speak in fear that the hammer will come down on their heads and they will be left penny less defending a lawsuit.

[D-Queued]

It would be nice to know Catlin's thoughts. Knowone will speak in fear that the hammer will come down on their heads and they will be left penny less defending a lawsuit.

Depends on the lawsuit, and who the other party is.

Allegedly Greg won his.

Lance's bark is much worse than his bite.

Dave.

[pelota]

7


haha


so sorry your danish guy is a fruad.



keep dreaming of a nonpositif.

[Steve in ATL]

7
haha
so sorry your danish guy is a fruad.
keep dreaming of a nonpositif.

Dear Mr. Ball,

Your time here is going to be very short if all you are going to do is (attempt to) antagonize other people.

Shorter message: Contribute, shut up, or leave.

Thanks in advance for your cooperation.

[frenchfry]

Dear Mr. Ball,

You use the singular, do you know something we don't?

[Steve in ATL]

You use the singular, do you know something we don't?

Apparently, but it's only that "pelota" is singular.

[one-mint-julich]

Apparently, but it's only that "pelota" is singular.

It could be a bunch of pelotums. Isn't the plural of scrotum scrota?

[Kiwi]

http://www.localcyclist.com/2009/09/a-tale-of-two-cyclists/

[fondriestfan]

It could be a bunch of pelotums. Isn't the plural of scrotum scrota?

So, I went to a cycling forum and a debate about Latin second declension nouns broke out.
Maybe pelota is first declension, then the plural would be pelotae.


This post has been edited by fondriestfan: Sep 7 2009, 09:07 PM

[D-Queued]

http://www.localcyclist.com/2009/09/a-tale-of-two-cyclists/

What do Michael Jordan and British Telecom have to do with the Tour?

Possible explanations include response to altitude, recovery from significant physical stress, EPO or some combination.
...
Explanations include particularly hardy red blood cells that survive longer than expected, a tour hard enough to suppress his Retic but not hard enough to break down red cells, dehydration(Hgb looks higher than it actually is), or blood transfusions plus minus EPO

Oh wait, I get it now

...consider the scenario that rider MJ and BT are not two different riders but the same rider at two different times

Karma Chameleon? Caught cheating, but no walking the plank?

Dave.

[rational head]

http://www.localcyclist.com/2009/09/a-tale-of-two-cyclists/

Thanks for posting this.

It's not a bad attempt at explaining blood profiling/bio passport but, I believe, it's far too simplified compared to the UCI multi-parameter model. Specifically, in addition to Hct/Hb/retics the UCI's 9 experts use 5 to 7 secondary blood markers to differentiate artificial blood manipulation from natural physiology.

In fact, at DPF we had several threads delving onto more detail and the link above only illustrates the basic approach used in the much discussed Mario Zorzoli report from 2003 (?).

It's a rather tedious subject that requires much patience, but if anyone is really interested in how to interpret blood profiling wrt doping (EPO and transfusions, I strongly recommend to start with the Zorzoli report. It contains clear, easily understandable graphs and explanations. Google it, if interested or search this forum.

[wildeone]

looking for a new TOTO as i needed a giggle, and came across this: Armstrong's Bio Passport Critic Speaks

[rational head]

looking for a new TOTO as i needed a giggle, and came across this: Armstrong's Bio Passport Critic Speaks

Great find, Wildeone!

In fact, so good that it deserves to be here in full. Also, props to Andy for asking intelligent and tough questions. Another great example of the 'alternative" media.value.
--------

Armstrong's Bio Passport Critic Speaks
Tue, 09/08/2009 - 7:35am by Andy
I've been unable to get anyone to comment on the record regarding Jaekob Moerkeberg's statements about Armstrong's Tour blood values, so I went to the source himself.

Andy Shen: How did this story come about? Did you approach the newspaper, or did they approach you?

Jaekob Moerkeberg: There was a journalist from Denmark’s Radio that approached me, called me last Tuesday. He asked if I had seen the results posted on Armstrong's website, and I had. Then he asked me how I interpreted the data, and I told him what I saw, and he asked me if I was willing to say that on television.

AS: So you didn't initiate it? The typical criticism is, "He must need a grant, he's trying to make a name for himself."

JM: In 2007, when Michael Rasmussen also posted his values, there was another journalist who approached me. I took a stance on that also.

AS: So you were known as a blood researcher who was willing to take a stand publicly.

JM: Maybe.

AS: Can you tell me about your background?

JM: I'm an exercise physiologist, Copenhagen University graduating 2006, and I have just written up my PhD and submitted it one week ago, the PhD is about detecting autologous blood transfusions in an anti-doping context.

AS: And you have published with Damsgaard and Ashenden.

JM: Yes.

AS: Are you on the bio passport board? Do you have access to that information?

JM: No.

AS: Were you able to look at other values from the Tour?

JM: I've only seen Bradley Wiggins' values.

AS: Some have said that Wiggins' values are also suspicious. Do you agree with that?

JM: He hasn't published as many values, but his values are not following a pattern that you would expect from a physiological point of view.

AS: Part of what you find suspicious about Armstrong’s values is that the hematocrit stays very steady, with a couple of spikes in the middle?

JM: Yes. Usually I'm referring to the hemoglobin concentration, because that is what's used nowadays. People are more and more interpreting hemoglobin concentrations instead of hematocrit because of analytical reasons. So what I see is that his first value is the same as his last value, and when you look at those individual values during the race, it's going down in the beginning, then after the rest day the values increase, then they go down again, and then on the second rest day it increases again. I am well aware of the analytical and biological variations in the hemoglobin concentration, that is why I have emphasized that the important point when interpreting these values is that the last value is not lower than the first.

AS: Is hematocrit and hemoglobin somewhat interchangeable?

JM: Yes, there is a good correlation between those two parameters.

AS: The other thing you find strange is the reticulocyte count, that it's too low, and that's indicating that he's not producing his own red blood cells?

JM: If you look at his values during the year up to the Tour, the reticulocyte values are pretty much what you would expect, around 1%. There are analytical variations and biological variations to that parameter as for any other parameter. Then at the beginning of the Tour, it's half, .5%, which is producing half the red blood cells that you would expect. The reason why you get a decrease in your reticulocyte values is when you have an increased amount of hemoglobin. Your body does not have to produce as much as usual.

AS: What's the margin of error on these numbers? Is a .3 in hemoglobin fluctuation significant?

JM: It's not significant. That's why I'm not going into detail with every single number. I'm just saying that the first value and the last value are almost equal, and that the decrease you would expect is beyond the margin of variance for those numbers. That's the take home message.

AS: Michael Ashenden talked about a signal to noise ratio, there has to be enough of a fluctuation to be significant. Are these fluctuations beyond the range of 'noise'?

JM: The variations are within the noise, but that is if you're not doing anything. If you're not doing strenuous exercise, you wouldn't expect these values to change. You would expect these small variations that you see, but the reason I'm saying these values are suspicious is that he's doing strenuous exercise, and then you would expect to see a decrease, as you see in his values during the Giro. That's what's suspicious.

AS: So the important values to you are the beginning and the end, not the fluctuations in the middle?

JM: I would prefer not to get into details about the variations in the middle.

AS: Of course, now I'm going to ask you a question about the variations in the middle. Jonathan Vaughters and Frankie Andreu, in that famous IM session, referred to a 'rest day blood refill'. Also, Sinkewitz said he got his transfusions on rest days. Is it significant that the spikes in the middle occur after the rest days.

JM: Prefer not to comment on that.

AS: What kind of a spike in the numbers would you expect to see from a typical unit of transfusion?

JM: 0.8 grams per deciliter. For half a liter of blood, an increase in the hemoglobin concentration of 0.8 g/dL.

AS: There's also a spike in the off score before the Tour, is that something significant?

JM: If you apply it to the cutoff that they use, no.

AS: If you look at the graph, it's a big spike. It doesn't trigger a sanction, but is it something that triggers suspicion?

JM: It is a big spike, but what you have to take into consideration is that the previous value was at the end of the Giro, where his values decreased as expected.

AS: Damsgaard says this is just speculative, he hasn't criticized this on specific points. How do you view his statement?

JM: I really don't want to comment on that.

AS: Hans Erik Heier says the hemoglobin values are too low and couldn't have been manipulated.

JM: I can't follow that assumption. I am not saying these values are suspicious because they are high. That is the whole point. I am talking about a lack of relative low values for that specific athlete, which you would expect from a physiological point of view at the end of the Tour.

AS: Damsgaard also talked about the rights of the cyclist. Do you think it's correct for us to discuss this at all? The blood passport does allow for a lot of speculation, and the rider may not have sufficient recourse...

JM: I would like to emphasize that the passport does NOT allow for a lot of speculation, because the values are NOT publicized. I think there is a good reason for that and in my opinion that is the way it should be. Another thing is, when you as an athlete choose by yourself to publish your values - then it's free for people to comment on them. This was his own decision. If you're not ready for that scrutiny, you shouldn't publish your values. If a journalist comes to me, it's because I've done work in this area, and want my opinion as a scientist. If he has got a problem with people commenting on his values, he shouldn't have chosen to publish them. When he does that, it's an open forum, it's public, and if something looks strange it would be wrong for me not to say that, when I was asked. If I didn’t say his values looked suspicious, I would dismiss the scientific literature, which I have based my comments on.

AS: When a rider publishes his results, in a way, he's saying he must be clean because he's being transparent. So, in your opinion, he should be able to withstand some criticism.

JM: Correct.

AS: So if I were to come to you with Wiggins' numbers, you would say the same thing? Suspicious?

JM: I have seen no exact values, but the pattern on the graph I have seen does not follow the expected pattern.

AS: Bjarne Riis ended Saxo Bank's internal testing program, saying that the bio passport alone is sufficient. Do you think the bio passport is doing its job?

JM: Yes, definitely. I think it's a step in the right direction. I won't say it's perfect, but the bio passport has decreased the amount of doping you can do without being caught. It has decreased the allowed fluctuations you can have. I think it's on the right track.

AS: So doping might still exist, but not to the magnitude it used to be at? People might be cheating, but just not as much, so it might be easier for clean athletes to compete?

JM: Difficult to say, but I hope so.

AS: Have you been contacted by any members of the US media?

JM: The Associated Press contacted me.

[schmalz]

We appreciate your enthusiasm, but can you just give us a link instead of cutting and pasting the whole article? How will we pay for our defense fund?

schmalz

[Velo]

"So what I see is that his first value is the same as his last value, and when you look at those individual values during the race, it's going down in the beginning, then after the rest day the values increase, then they go down again, and then on the second rest day it increases again."

Maybe the Tour should just get rid of rest days.

[one-mint-julich]

Maybe the Tour should just get rid of rest days.

Or rename them "replenishment" days.

[Cowboy]

Isnt the most blindingly obvious question here - How can your hemoglobin increase so much after a single day's rest when your reticulocyte count so low?

Why aren't newspapers queuing up to ask this?

[TheMight]

Isnt the most blindingly obvious question here - How can your hemoglobin increase so much after a single day's rest when your reticulocyte count so low?

Why aren't newspapers queuing up to ask this?

Exactly, or at least some clamoring about what other external factors explain it. How dehydrated would you have to be to make that kind of a swing?

[Velo]

Exactly, or at least some clamoring about what other external factors explain it. How dehydrated would you have to be to make that kind of a swing?

Which would logically lead to: How do you get so dehydrated on rest days that it affects your blood values and yet not have it affect performance in the stages following?

btw here's the same graph for Wiggins:

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?...mp;postcount=67

This post has been edited by Velo: Sep 8 2009, 06:28 PM