Danish scientist: Armstrong does not look clean Options

[samb]

http://politiken.dk/sport/cykling/article780582.ece

[samb]

In short, his blood values at the end of the Tour are basically the what they were at the beginning of the Tour. In the period of 11.-14. july, his hematocrit rose from 40.7 to 43.1. Armstrongs blood values from the Giro does not show similar anomalies.

[samb]

http://cdn-community2.livestrong.com/ver1....10a264.Full.jpg

[Andrew]

Has anyone published Contador's values? It would be interesting to contrast them with Armstrong's. If AC's values declined during the Tour, like a normal human being's would, then the assumption might be that a clean Contador beat a doped up Armstrong, which would be a lovely thing to think about--but if his values parallel Lance's, then you could assume they were on the same program, which would lead to speculation about what's going to happen when Bruyneel and his no-one-on-my-squad-has-ever-tested-positive organization follow Lance to the Shack, leaving AC to follow in the path of Heras, Hamilton, Landis and other ex-Hog riders.

This post has been edited by Andrew: Sep 2 2009, 08:59 PM

[Velo]

In short, his blood values at the end of the Tour are basically the what they were at the beginning of the Tour. In the period of 11.-14. july, his hematocrit rose from 40.7 to 43.1. Armstrongs blood values from the Giro does not show similar anomalies.

And both jumps in crit revolve around rest days:

July 11th - 40.7
July 13th - rest day
July 14th - 43.1

July 20th - rest day; 41.7
July 25th - Mt Ventoux; 43

[Strategy]

Michael Rasmussen, 05.07.2007 - 40,3 Hct
Michael Rasmussen, 17.07.2007 - 43,1 Hct
Michael Rasmussen, 24.07.2007 - 43,9 Hct

It will/would be very interesting to hear what Rasmus Damsgaard has to say about this, because two years ago he was not shy about saying outright that the evidence suggested Rasmussen was doped. I really want to see the Danish media question RD on this subject, given that he supposedly still works as a consultant for Astana...

@Andrew: I wouldn't expect ever to see any kind of blood profile for Contador.

[one-mint-julich]

Here's where more data, which ought to be out there somewhere, would really be helpful. I would like to see the HT values of a bunch of riders, on the day before they started the Tour (when all the tests are done, I believe), then at one, two and three weeks into the Tour, or more often if available. If one could show that most or all riders really do exhibit a significant drop in HT over the Tour, the burden would be on LA to explain why his didn't drop.

Of course, this assumes all these other riders are clean. Maybe data from the pre-EPO era would be more helpful, though I don't know if HT values were routinely measured then. Certainly not very often, for very many riders.

One thing for sure. With a "normal" HT in the low 40s, LA is certainly in position to benefit greatly from EPO or blood transfusions.

[Strategy]

Here's where more data, which ought to be out there somewhere, would really be helpful. I would like to see the HT values of a bunch of riders, on the day before they started the Tour (when all the tests are done, I believe), then at one, two and three weeks into the Tour, or more often if available. If one could show that most or all riders really do exhibit a significant drop in HT over the Tour, the burden would be on LA to explain why his didn't drop.

It is fairly well known that Hematocrit normally falls by 1-3 points during a GT. Of course you can have individual reading being wrong (e.g., due to measuring errors, dehydration, or other factors), but there is no question that this is the normal behavior.

It is a pity that the 2008 CSC doping report is so unreadable, but if you can fight through the obfuscation you can actually identify a few of the riders who are clearly riding the Giro/Tour. Haven't had time to see if

Just to give an example from Rasmussen's other biopassport results:

Giro 05.05.2005 - 40,4
Giro 11.05.2005 - 39,8
Tour 30.06.2005 - 39,8
Tour 23.07.2005 - 39,2
Giro 04.05.2006 - 38,8
Giro 18.05.2006 - 39,0 (The only other result that bucks the trend, but he didn't race competitively in this race)
Tour 29.06.2006 - 40,4
Tour 22.07.2006 - 38,1
Vuelta 24.08.2006 - 39,1
Vuelta 13.09.2006 - 36,6

Of course, there is nothing to say that Rasmussen wasn't also doped these years, but nevertheless these results are much more in line with what one would normally expect to see in a rider competitive in a GT.

Edit:
Another comparison for reference - Basso during this year's Giro went: 44,0 42,8, 40,8, 39,7.



This post has been edited by Strategy: Sep 3 2009, 09:30 AM

[smug]

"armstrong does not look clean"

this is news?

[Forstoppelse]

Oh. My. God. What the.

This is so sick - the last ITT compared to Mont Ventoux was strange but this is... wow. Ferrari has seriously ####ed this up. Oh my freaking God, what a bad doper he is - I looked at those numbers and thought of Michael Rasmussen's numbers from the Tour 2007 which, as Strategy pointed out, are almost the same. This is just tragic comedy - I really thought he was back to show he was clean. UCI could get seriously humiliated if they don't take action here - at least they have to give him bucket load of tests, or, well, they're already doing that. Oh my God.

[smug]

"Siberia is cold."

[The Rake]

"The Pope is a Catholic"

[D-Queued]

"armstrong does not look clean"

this is news?

I thought he had a shower?

...

@Andrew: I wouldn't expect ever to see any kind of blood profile for Contador.

Just keep the Kryptonite behind the lead shield. Otherwise, he will start to look human.

Dave.

[smug]

these same scientists have concluded there are africans living in africa.

[Strategy]

Additional details about the stuff that Mørkebjerg wonders about.

Apart from the hematocrit/haemoglobin spike, the reticulocyte values also puzzle Mørkebjerg.

Brief summary of Mørkebjergs comments:
He points out that off season, the values lie around 1%, which quite normal. But come Tour time, the reticulocyte values have fallen to half that - 0,5%. Firstly, Mørkebjerg notes that this is borderline for a normal, healthy person. Secondly, he observes that this indicates that Armstrong's body has halved its own production of red blood cells, which is a significant drop off.

This usually only happens at times when the body has an excess of red blood cells and is often seen with EPO usage or blood transfusions, though he of course points out that this is not proof that this has occured in this instance.

He notes that Armstrong's values are more or less as one would expect that they should be during the Giro. His Hct and Hgb values fall as they would be expected to, and his Reticulocyte vary from 1,3% over 0,7% to 0,9%.

It is the TdF results which he finds unusual, both in their own rights, as well as in comparison to the Giro numbers:
1. No decrease in Hgb/Hct by the end of the race (the earlier reports also noted the variations coinciding with the rest days).
2. Extremely low reticulocyte results. They were down to 0,5 by the start of the race, rose to 0,7% after the first week of the race and then went down to 0,5% again after the first rest day. At the end of the race, they had once again risen to 0,7%.

[smug]

Additional details about the stuff that Mørkebjerg wonders about.

Apart from the hematocrit/haemoglobin spike, the reticulocyte values also puzzle Mørkebjerg.

Brief summary of Mørkebjergs comments:
He points out that off season, the values lie around 1%, which quite normal. But come Tour time, the reticulocyte values have fallen to half that - 0,5%. Firstly, Mørkebjerg notes that this is borderline for a normal, healthy person. Secondly, he observes that this indicates that Armstrong's body has halved its own production of red blood cells, which is a significant drop off.

This usually only happens at times when the body has an excess of red blood cells and is often seen with EPO usage or blood transfusions, though he of course points out that this is not proof that this has occured in this instance.

He notes that Armstrong's values are more or less as one would expect that they should be during the Giro. His Hct and Hgb values fall as they would be expected to, and his Reticulocyte vary from 1,3% over 0,7% to 0,9%.

It is the TdF results which he finds unusual, both in their own rights, as well as in comparison to the Giro numbers:
1. No decrease in Hgb/Hct by the end of the race (the earlier reports also noted the variations coinciding with the rest days).
2. Extremely low reticulocyte results. They were down to 0,5 by the start of the race, rose to 0,7% after the first week of the race and then went down to 0,5% again after the first rest day. At the end of the race, they had once again risen to 0,7%.

great stuff, strategy. what irks me about all this is the scorn heaped on vino and other folks who have been caught. with armstrong, the problem's with everybody else. i'm sure you can start substituting "danish" for "french." after all, the danes could have more helpful in operation iraqi freedom.

[formerlyfit]

Oh. My. God. What the.
- at least they have to give him bucket load of tests

Just found this right now

Knock - knock, 6:50 am. Anti-doping inspectors at the house. Wow.17 minutes ago from UberTwitter

http://twitter.com/lancearmstrong

Edited to make it clear that I would never use the word Wow as a written sentence.


This post has been edited by formerlyfit: Sep 3 2009, 12:23 PM

[Tom T.]

I love how he says "wow".

Looks like a few "withdrawals" were made last winter and "deposits" made in July. No surprise there.

[MacRoadie]

Love the follow-up Tweet:

@Liam_OBeagain no but offered coffee. Nice folks (many times the same peeps). But 6:50??? @maxarmstrong1 and @annahansen weren't too happy..

As usual, softens up and backs off from the previous Tweet. Apparently, 7 am is still shockingly early for LA. For the real world, not so much.

[Strategy]

Seems the Norwegians were caught by the Lance-fever after his visit here a few week ago.

In the Norwegian papers, Thor Hushovd has spoken to defend Armstrong, and now a Norwegian Professor at the Blood Bank in Oslo comes out in LA's defence.

Brief summary, he questions that it is possible to read anything from the lack of stability in the measurements and talks about varying hydration being the reason for the variance in the measurements. He also - correctly of course, and Mørkebjerg states the same - point out that the results cannot be used as proof of doping (all values are within acceptable limits).