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But they ####ed it up again. Ahem. either way, I see two big favorites: Spain and Germany. The latter a little bit more since Spain is missing Villa, and I think it may sink a little into the same problem as Barcelona this season (which is largely the Spanish midfield anyway), where they have constant possession but sometimes (like vs Chelsea) miss that little cutting edge goalscoring ability that Villa brings. Germany was mighty impressive in the group stage, scoring 30/30 and never even looking bothered. And as we all know they're a tournament team.
Below that there's Holland who, as much as I hate the Dutch national football team and all their fans, have a rock solid offensive compartment with Affelay left, Van Persie centre, Robben right and Sneijder behind them. They are a very mediocre team in defense though, and tend to fail in tournaments. Not to mention their penalty shootout trauma - they have only ever won a penalty shootout at a tournament once in their entire history (2004). Lost everything else. With Robben recently missing important penalties against Dortmund and Chelsea, one could wonder if things are about to get better anytime soon.
Not entirely sure what to think of France and Italy. France has been playing impressively solid lately and has an attractive offensive department with Ribéry, Benzema and Nasri. Defense seems solid too, with a good keeper (always important at a tournament). I think they may surprise a lot of people in the shade of the 'favorites'. Italy has been rebuilding a good team following the disaster at the World Cup in South Africa, but it's probably too early to reap the rewards. The gambling scandal dogging them won't do them much good either, but then they've often performed well in similar situations in the past. Who knows.
England...I'm sorry for The Rake, who may disagree with me entirely, but I think this is an entirely average team featuring a few players that are already over the hill (Terry and Gerrard) and a few young players who barely played a third of the season's game in their respective PL teams. They're of course not helped by the injuries of Lampard and Barry, and Rooney's suspension. On the bright side, for the first time in almost 10 years they have a good to very good goalkeeper in Joe Hart! If England play a la Chelsea, ie defend tooth and nail and hope for the goal, who knows though? It'd be very much like football to see a team this haunted by injury, bad luck and lack of flair to go on and win the European Championship.
I'll gloss over the rest of the teams by saying that my 'further' outsiders are Denmark, who I believe have an underrated team, and Ireland who seem to be so incredibly confident under that old fox Trappatoni's coaching that they may very well go on to win their group - and who knows what happens then? Denmark of course has the problem of sitting in the 'group of death' with Holland, Germany and Portugal but should be comfortable with the thought that for them any result they can get is a good result - while all three others are expecting nothing less than a win. The pressure's off. (besides, Portugal is a rather mediocre team sanse Ronaldo, who can't do everything by himself) Don't underestimate Russia either, but I don't seem them going much further than the semis regardless.
Putting money down on Germany (4/1 to win), France (2.5/1 to reach semis) and two smaller sidebets on Denmark and Ireland to win (1/100 and 1/120 respectively).
Would love to hear everyone else's expectations and/or criticisms of my views!
