[Burkni]

Although interest in the Vuelta seems to be close to a deep freeze on this board right now, I am all for speculating about the final GC
Currently there are a whopping six guys within a minute of Wiggins' lead so everything should be possible.
There are Three mountain top finishes left, two out of which are rather horrible (Pena Cabarga and the Angliru)

I don't think Wiggo has any proven credentials over gradients over 20% - he for instance lost 25mins on the Zoncolan in the 2010 Giro if that is any indication (don't think he was trying too hard there anyway) but Nibali held his own quite well at Pena Cabarga and the Bola del Mundo last year, so if anything, I'd say the Shark from the Strait is looking the best poised to take the Red Jersey into Madrid. Rodriguez should make the podium but hardly more than that - he should shine in the latter half of the race now that the nasty TT is over

[crockett]

Wiggins sure looks good right now. He has looked unbeatable this past week on the 6 to 7% gradient. It has been very interesting to watch the bigger guys pop these little climbers off the back on these climbs and in the wind. I think the wind will play a big part in whether Wiggins will hang on. Seems like the time gaps will be small if the wind keeps up, which should play to his advantage.

I think Mollema is a shot for the podium as well. He seems real interested and motivated, while others seem to be sleep walking.

Looks like a podium of Wiggins, Nibali, and Mollema if I were to guess right now.

[Jayhawk]

My TV & internet were knocked out for 5 days from Hurricane Irene, so I have no feel for how the race is going, unfortunately. Mollema on the podium would be interesting. I love to see young talent shine.

Did I miss anything good?

[crockett]

Jayhawk, on 02 September 2011 - 01:24 AM, said:

My TV & internet were knocked out for 5 days from Hurricane Irene, so I have no feel for how the race is going, unfortunately. Mollema on the podium would be interesting. I love to see young talent shine.

Did I miss anything good?

Jayhawk, it has been quite interesting. JRod dominates a stage on a steep, short climb, and then gets blown out the back door the second day. To see the same thing happen to Scarponi. Watching Sky grab hold of the race. Watching the wind blow the little climbers away. It has been interesting as always.

I swear that the Vuelta is the most interesting of the 3 GTs to watch. [Despite the fact that very few seem to pay attention to this race, and despite the fact that I can't record it and watch it at my leisure, or watch it in HD.] It seems to me that most years, the leader's jersey gets passed around among contendors in the Vuelta a number of times, and that the GC battle is usually quite close (most years less than 1 minute separates first and second). Add to that the many stages with climbing, the wind playing a factor, and the uneven form of riders, I never know what to expect.

[Jayhawk]

crockett, on 02 September 2011 - 08:04 PM, said:

Jayhawk, it has been quite interesting. JRod dominates a stage on a steep, short climb, and then gets blown out the back door the second day. To see the same thing happen to Scarponi. Watching Sky grab hold of the race. Watching the wind blow the little climbers away. It has been interesting as always.

Aughhh!!! I missed all that good stuff?! Stupid hurricane I would have love to have seen that -- was hoping Scarponi would be a factor in a non-Italian race for once.

Thanks so much for the update, crockett.

This post has been edited by Jayhawk: 03 September 2011 - 12:42 AM

[Burkni]

At 55 seconds back, if Cobo climbs like today, he will be in the lead.

[vaunTrevi]

Burkni, on 03 September 2011 - 08:43 PM, said:

At 55 seconds back, if Cobo climbs like today, he will be in the lead.

I think the climbs so far, especially today haven't had the bite or steepness. Those guys were climbing today like they were on the flaats until the final few 10% sections near the top. This kind of climbing favors a guy like Wiggins. Angliru is another kind of Animal. So far its been a tough race with a lot of heat, not the best conditions for recovery. I think we're seeing a lot of riders riding through that right now.
Climbs like today's don't produce a huge time difference unless guys just break.. and honestly if you look at the G. C. with what comes inthe final week - I'd extend that "window of opportunity" to a wider view than 40 seconds.
The Vuelta never fails to surprise as its such a mixed bag of riders on the teams.... at least to 2 minutes. Possibly three - it really depends what happens on Angliru tomorrow its a climb BIG time can be lost or won... we'll see who gets some redemption tomorrow. But I expect we'll have some surprises to discuss on Monday.

[Burkni]

No huge surprises today - Froome stronger than Wiggo and Cobo stronger than the lot.

Wiggo has mainly himself to blame - he could have got 1:30-2:00 more out of the ITT and TTT.

[Jayhawk]

No surprises as far as the way the race has gone recently. But who wold have predicted a month ago that J.J. Cobo would be the race's big gun or that Wiggins would be his rival or that Nibali and Anton would collapse? Strange race in a way, but unpredictable, therefore interesting.