[VdB]

Btw Burkni, apparently the local organizers took stock of Gilbert's disappointment with the flat finish in Seraing and redesigned the final kms so they would suit him better. The stage now finishes on the Avenue du Centenaire in Seraing, an explosive climb comparable to the finish of first stage of this year's TdF.

http://www.eurosport...317/story.shtml

[Burkni]

VdB, on 17 September 2011 - 11:29 AM, said:

Andy will never see it coming. He'll probably say something like "the fans don't want to see the Tour decided on a mountain that isn't at least 15 kms long and in the third week of the Tour".

Damn straight

[Burkni]

The 1st stage may be interesting after all ... http://www.cyclingne...ged-for-gilbert

The Cristalleries Val Saint-Lambert will have withdrawn quite some cash I'd guess.

This post has been edited by Burkni: 18 September 2011 - 04:01 PM

[Burkni]

Stage 1 details FINALLY accessible here.
My thoughts are that for a simulation of a hilly classic, they could have done a lot better, but this is no strict sprinters' fare either.
What we probably have here is a carefully designed hybrid to match the sprinters and puncheurs as evenly as possible. Expect the following riders as the main protagonists in the finale:

Gilbert (duh)
Valverde (back and meaner than ever)
Hushovd
EBH
Sagan
Goss

Gilbert will probably succumb to the homeboy pressure and go too early, on the steepest part at some 2.5km out. Stay away for 1km and then fade. Valverde, who normally times this kind of finish to perfection, will probably go with 400m to go, after which the road levels out considerably. Should make for a fantastic finish.
My pick, on Boxing Day 2011: Goss.

Edit:
The info could be erroneous to some extent. The displayed finale is very, very technical and has a lot of road furniture, especially for a 1st stage, and should see plenty of crashes. Just had a look at Google Maps and the finish straight is up what looks like an inhabited, suburban street, with not much room for the finishing area.

This post has been edited by Burkni: 26 December 2011 - 10:38 PM

[lanterne_rouge]

Odds from Bluesquare today:

Cadel Evans 15/8

Andy Schleck 16/5

Bradley Wiggins 5/1

Denis Menchov 7/1

Christopher Froome 25/1

Alejandro Valverde, Janez Brajkovic, Robert Gesink, Jurgen van den Broek 28/1

Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez, Vincenzo Nibali 33/1

F. Schleck, Andreas Kloeden, Levi Leipheimer 40/1

Pierre Rolland, Ivan Basso, Juan Jose Cobo 50/1

66/1 bar.

The entry that mystifies me most is that for Dennis Menchov. 4th favourite at 7/1? I know he is a multiple GT winner but he's never done anything much in the Tour (except prove that yes, it really is possible to fall uphill ). But if you want a good value bet this may be it; either Menchov, or Froome.
Where is Chris Froome this year? Are Sky saving him for the Giro, perhaps?

JD

[VdB]

I'm in doubt between Evans and Wiggins.

I think Wiggins could have the edge on Evans (who's not getting any younger) but Evans has been a changed man since his World title, and I'm sure he'll be even more of a changed man after winning the freaking Tour de France. I don't like betting against someone who's shown himself to be able to withstand almost anything: disappointing crashes, team troubles, criticism from just about everyone, and then crazy suicide attacks from the Schlecks and Contador. Surely at this point this stubborness is only bolstered by his belief that he was right to be, with a world title and a Tour win under the belt!

[mapeifan]

Three French teams, one Dutch invited on Tour de France

PARIS, April 6 (Reuters) - French teams Cofidis, Saur-Sojasun and Team Europcar and Dutch outfit Argos-Shimano were granted wild cards to take part in this year’s Tour de France, organisers said on Friday.

Each of the 18 ProTour teams will take part in the race along with four invited squads.

There were no big suprises in the list although French team Bretagne-Schuller, whose rider Florient Vachon won the Criterium first stage, would have expected an invitation.

Argos-Shimano, who were known as Project 1t4i when the season began, hope to clinch a stage victory and will rely on their German leader Marcel Kittel, who shone in the Vuelta last year.

The Tour start from Liege, Belgium, on June 30 and arrives in Paris on July 22. (

Gregory Blachier; Editing by John Mehaffey)

[VdB]

Very unsurprising invitations this year, but maybe that's for the better. Good to see Kittel will be sprinting there!

[Leafcake]

Hesjedal. Don't you just love how he oozes confidence.
Really glad he decided to give the Tour a shot. If ever Hesjedal can do the double it will be total madness. Provided one accepts he can maintain his form, as he claims he can, what are his chances?
Assuming Evans and Wiggins stay out of trouble, he will be losing time to them in the TTs. That could accumulate to over 3 min for the lot of them. At the same time, I doubt he can climb better than them. Mentally, he would also be up against some strong heads, though with the luxury of his 'bonus ride', the pressure would be on them.

Of course it is the Tour, where anyone could be falling by the wayside, anytime. Last year Hesjedal crashed early on, and that was it for his GC. Anyway, one can expect the Tour to produce its own surprises.

[buddy]

I think the big question before this years tour is:

Does Sky take both Cavendish and Wiggins?

IMO if I was the director and given the sensational tour riding of team Sky this year I tell Cav he is stying home to train for the Olympics. It is a big call but Wiggins could seriously win the tour this year. If that is a chance then why risk it by taking Cav just to win a few stages and maybe green.

How will it be if they win green but blow the yellow by spreading themselves too thin. If you take Cav then you have to be prepared to ride on the front. Other teams are not going to do the work and cart him to the line to see Sky take over for a couple of k,s for a Cav win. If Cav goes then they are going to burn riders working for him. Workers that aren't there to help Wiggins when he may need it most.

Disappoint Cav now. Get him pissed off so he trsins the house down to win the gold in London. Now yellow and gold for Sky and you look like a genius director. Cav will get over it. Will Wiggins get over it if he just jisses out on yellow and doesn't get another chance like the one presently before him.

Thanks,

Buddy

[VdB]

buddy, on 10 June 2012 - 03:11 AM, said:

I think the big question before this years tour is:

Does Sky take both Cavendish and Wiggins?

IMO if I was the director and given the sensational tour riding of team Sky this year I tell Cav he is stying home to train for the Olympics. It is a big call but Wiggins could seriously win the tour this year. If that is a chance then why risk it by taking Cav just to win a few stages and maybe green.

How will it be if they win green but blow the yellow by spreading themselves too thin. If you take Cav then you have to be prepared to ride on the front. Other teams are not going to do the work and cart him to the line to see Sky take over for a couple of k,s for a Cav win. If Cav goes then they are going to burn riders working for him. Workers that aren't there to help Wiggins when he may need it most.

Disappoint Cav now. Get him pissed off so he trsins the house down to win the gold in London. Now yellow and gold for Sky and you look like a genius director. Cav will get over it. Will Wiggins get over it if he just jisses out on yellow and doesn't get another chance like the one presently before him.

Thanks,

Buddy

While I agree with you Buddy I don't think they can let Cav at home (if he wants to do the Tour). I could even imagine there being a sort of 'has to race the Tour if fit' clause in Cav's contract with Sky. Would make sense for a rider of his profile. Maybe they can take him along but tell him beforehand that he'll have to do the sprints on his own?

[N.B.O.L.]

RE: Cav & Wiggins both at the tour.

I agree that it becomes a support problem for Sky, but it was something that they had to know they were going to have to deal with when they went after Cav to hire him.

[buddy]

Yes but the problem is they may have never really had the confidence that Wiggins could seriously be the big chance to win the tour that he most definitely has right now.

Cav and his stage wins is a huge security blanket for the team and sponsor but it is also a millstone around the neck of a team seriously intent on winning the race.

If Sky do like vdb suggests and leaves Cav to help himself it is going to be a field day for break away wins. What other team is going to work to pull a break back if Sky and Cav are wheelsucking.

If you take Cav you have to take guys that will ride on the front to pull in the break. He is too good of a sprinter. His team have to do their job. It will be expected. And there is the Sky dilemna. Any help for Cav is not help for the yellow challenge. It may ultimately cost them the tour so why risk it. The yellow is way more important than Cav winning stages or the green.

I remember when Sky was first set up they announced the goal was to have a British ride win the tour inside of 5 years. I remember at the time thinking 'yeah right'.

Now they really do have a big chance but I think they are going to blw it by not making the important decision of leaving Cav behind to train for and win Olympic gold.

I hope for Cadels sake they select Cav. The way Sky are riding he will need the to waste some energy helping Cav.

Thanks,

Buddy

[N.B.O.L.]

buddy, on 11 June 2012 - 01:21 AM, said:

Yes but the problem is they may have never really had the confidence that Wiggins could seriously be the big chance to win the tour that he most definitely has right now.

Cav and his stage wins is a huge security blanket for the team and sponsor but it is also a millstone around the neck of a team seriously intent on winning the race.

If Sky do like vdb suggests and leaves Cav to help himself it is going to be a field day for break away wins. What other team is going to work to pull a break back if Sky and Cav are wheelsucking.

If you take Cav you have to take guys that will ride on the front to pull in the break. He is too good of a sprinter. His team have to do their job. It will be expected. And there is the Sky dilemna. Any help for Cav is not help for the yellow challenge. It may ultimately cost them the tour so why risk it. The yellow is way more important than Cav winning stages or the green.

I remember when Sky was first set up they announced the goal was to have a British ride win the tour inside of 5 years. I remember at the time thinking 'yeah right'.

Now they really do have a big chance but I think they are going to blw it by not making the important decision of leaving Cav behind to train for and win Olympic gold.

I hope for Cadels sake they select Cav. The way Sky are riding he will need the to waste some energy helping Cav.

Thanks,

Buddy

I fully understand all the ramifications. My point is that it was already the elephant in the room when Sky was negotiating to get Cav on the team.

[The Rake]

I would be tempted to leave Cav at home, and part of me wondered if he already knew this when being the only sprinter (pretty much) to grovel all the way to the finish in the Giro. That aside, if he does ride, the whole team may not necessarily need to support. He can sprint without a leadout but I think Sky will grant him Eisel, and probably Christian Knees. Thomas has already said he definitely isn't riding to concentrate on the Pursuit at the Olympics.

I don't think it will be a case of other teams letting breaks go away - teams like Green Edge don't really have a GC contender (Weening?), so will go Goss for green

Arguably other teams have the same issue: Rabobank (all for Gesink or take Renshaw or Bos?), Lotto (all for VdB or take Greipel?).

Sprinters teams will still amass; it just won't be a dominant train

This post has been edited by The Rake: 11 June 2012 - 08:19 AM

[crockett]

The way Sky is riding right now, they can support Wiggins in yellow (from prologue to the finish) and Cav (sprint wins and green), and still have a guy target the polka dots.

[shag]

crockett, on 11 June 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

The way Sky is riding right now, they can support Wiggins in yellow (from prologue to the finish) and Cav (sprint wins and green), and still have a guy target the polka dots.

Yes ... but can UKPS be that confident, even given how they are riding now? Even at the peak of their domination USPS were devoted solely to Armstrong (though perhaps that is as much attributable to Armstrong being Armstrong as to any failure of confidence to "do it all").

[shag]

Just noticed that Horner is NOT part of the RS Tour short list. WTF? Management says it's about Horner's back ... Horner says the back is fine ... what's really going on?

[N.B.O.L.]

shag, on 12 June 2012 - 02:05 PM, said:

Just noticed that Horner is NOT part of the RS Tour short list. WTF? Management says it's about Horner's back ... Horner says the back is fine ... what's really going on?

He's not from Luxembourg. He is riding at least as well as Frank, and much better than Andy. While he didn't TT particularly well in California, he generally is a better TTer than either. If he is there all of a sudden you have three potential leaders and Sastre Horner winds up better placed and the Schlecks have to act like they are happy about it. They have seen this act before and they don't like it.

[shag]

N.B.O.L., on 12 June 2012 - 03:57 PM, said:

He's not from Luxembourg. He is riding at least as well as Frank, and much better than Andy. While he didn't TT particularly well in California, he generally is a better TTer than either. If he is there all of a sudden you have three potential leaders and Sastre Horner winds up better placed and the Schlecks have to act like they are happy about it. They have seen this act before and they don't like it.

Yeah, but isn't Frandy worried about Klodi? Oh, yeah, I forgot: the last thing Klodi wants is to ride for himself.