[smug]

Alberto Contador
5/4 6/5

Andy Schleck
11/4 2

Cadel Evans
9/2 12

Alejandro Valverde
25 20

Bradley Wiggins
25 25

Robert Gesink
25 18

Samuel Sanchez
22 25

Frank Schleck
28 40

Jani Brajkovic
40 40

[Double R]

My guess;
Contador---skips the giro next year, and can't be beaten next year.

Andy Schleck---a new strategy---he admit tactical errors in the 2011 TdF---he now thinks that he attacked to early---in 2012 he would wait for the final stage before he attacks

Cadel Evans---should do another fine Tour, but with AC back at his best, he finish at the podium again, but not with the MJ.

The French are actually back in business---Rolland in the top 5!

Cav---as usual---wins 5 stages

Radioshack---believes they were to young and inexperienced last year---and hope that another year should do Leipheimer, Horner and Kloeden ready for the Tour---

[micomico]

Double R, on 25 July 2011 - 05:55 PM, said:

My guess;

Radioshack---believes they were to young and inexperienced last year---and hope that another year should do Leipheimer, Horner and Kloeden ready for the Tour---

Good one!

Actually, next year they will be gunning for Best Senior Citizen Team. Depends will sponsor.

[Burkni]

micomico, on 25 July 2011 - 09:52 PM, said:

Good one!

Actually, next year they will be gunning for Best Senior Citizen Team. Depends will sponsor.

They should have a grey jersey for best rider over 35, we could have a battle royale between Radioshack and ... Wait for it ....


JENS!

[buddy]

Hey if you make that 35 and over Cadel could have a shot at a couple of jerseys.

Pro riders seem to be hanging around longer these days.

Is it because they don't race as much anymore compared to years gone by?

Is it because of nutritional improvements and general health improvements overthe years?

Is it because the money they now make makes it worhwhile hanging in a few more years at the top?

Am I just imagining there are more senior citizens in the peloton?

Thanks,

Buddy

[buddy]

By the way I think Cadel has got to be a big chance next year too.

Firstly he may not have to deal with Contador as he may be taking a holiday from the sport. Secondly Andy Schleck will still be in a stupor from celebrating his first TdF win from 2010 after Contador has his result taken away.

In any case surely ASO can't have such a climber oriented tour next year. Surely there will be more ITT distance which will work against the Schlecks and in favour of Evans.

The resuly of the CAS decision on Contador should be in by the time ASO release details of next years tour and given the general popularity of Evans winning this year plus Voeckler being a chance next year they may decide to reduce the impact of the high mountains.

We will have more of an idea once we know the CAS decision and the tour par corse for next year.

For mine Cadel has to be high up there considering his brilliant ride this year. Hopefully he will have a better team too for the high mountains. I think he will be telling BMC to go shopping.

Wenendert would be great as would Rolland. With only a year or two to go in his career it could be a good move for one of those up and coming riders to move across to BMC and help Cadel for a year then take over leadership of a tour winning squad.


Thanks,

Buddy

[Burkni]

Good points, Buddy, although I would not put it past Prudhomme to reduce TT kms even further to make for a more exciting race on paper. (and I think he just isn't a TT fan)
BMC will defo be beefed up and Cadel might finally in his career get some mountain support. In that case, he will be very, very hard to beat. BTW will Valverde be back next year?

[buddy]

Yes I think ASO manages it's course to suit there agenda for the year.

This year I think they reduced the ITT's because they wanted to give Andy Schleck a better chance against Contador. (of course I could be wrong)

Next year I think they will be happy to see a Cadel Evans repeat given his clean reputation and how well he has been received as TdF winner. Reducing the mountain top finishes will also help Voeckler as well.

Will be intersting to see the par corse for next year. Before ten however there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge.

I think Valverde will be back. It will be interesting to see what level he comes back at.

Thanks,

Buddy

[Burkni]

I think their agenda is simply to have as close a race as possible, to generate more suspence, more viewing and thus more revenue.

Don't see how reducing mtn top finishes will help Voeckler, he isn't exactly the world's best TTer? Better to have the harder mountain stages early on in the race for him ...

[buddy]

Just not the big mountain finishes. Give him more of the 2nd category climbs that finish with a hairy decent.

I don't hink you can design a TdF course that Voeckler can win on. He will alwasys need to be gifted a lead through a break away being sucessful. He only got that this year due toe the major crash that took out so many riders. At the time the breaks lead was reduced to around 3:40 from memory and they would have been casught. Easing up after the crash and the lead blew out to 8:00.

Voeckler being the beneficiary. I can't see it happening again in his lifetime. Lightning already struck twice for Tommy.

Thanks,

Buddy

[Burkni]

Absolutely, and ASO know that.
They will be banking on him being the highest ranked Frenchman like this year, but garnering quite some attention doing so.

[Leafcake]

buddy, on 26 July 2011 - 08:04 AM, said:

Just not the big mountain finishes. Give him more of the 2nd category climbs that finish with a hairy decent.

I don't hink you can design a TdF course that Voeckler can win on. He will alwasys need to be gifted a lead through a break away being sucessful. He only got that this year due toe the major crash that took out so many riders. At the time the breaks lead was reduced to around 3:40 from memory and they would have been casught. Easing up after the crash and the lead blew out to 8:00.

Voeckler being the beneficiary. I can't see it happening again in his lifetime. Lightning already struck twice for Tommy.

Thanks,

Buddy

Agreed.
Not disputing your good points at all, just trying to break this down -

Time Voeckler lost to Evans before the break -
TTT 49”
Mûr-de-Bretagne 25”
Super-Besse 14”
Total: 1'28”

Time Voeckler gained on Evans through the break -
Saint-Flour 3'54”

He finished 4th 3'20” down on Evans. If one were to deduct the time he got in the break it would make 7'14”. Good enough for 8th on GC, in front of Basso.

Obviously without the yellow jersey he probably would have limited his TdF to stage hunting and wouldn't have ridden for GC, let alone go through all the suffering to defend his position. However, he could theoretically aim at a top ten on GC, although I seriously doubt he would like to do that (better win a stage than an anonymous...) and next year there will hopefully be more GC men up in the game. Not only did he profit from the time gifted to him in the break, but also so many GC men crashing out simultaneously: Vino, VdB, Wiggins, Kloeden, Horner and Brajkovic, with Gesink and Leipheimer hindered. So normally, there would be at least 5 additional guys fighting it out for top 10, mixing it up in the mountains with the potential of making the race more open.

[Double R]

For Italian riders, racing for an Italian team it's understandable that if they have a better chance for sucsess in the Giro, then they choose the Giro as the nr.1 priority. It should be interesting to see if Basso and Cunego's main target for 2012 will be the Giro. As I understand it, Contador allready has said that he skips the Giro next year to prepare for the Tour. Andy Scleck and Cadel Evans probably think likewise. For that reason I can easily understand if Basso target the Giro next year. Nibale is also better in TT's, so it makes sense if Basso targets the Giro and Nibali the Tour next year.

[Double R]

buddy, on 26 July 2011 - 08:04 AM, said:

Voeckler being the beneficiary. I can't see it happening again in his lifetime. Lightning already struck twice for Tommy.

Agreed!
Voeckler most likely returns to be the darling of the french public but not a threat in the GC. Should be in a couple of breakaways though.

[VdB]

Knowing French cycling a bit, Voeckler will be riding as a GC guy with a team in his service next year. I think he'll demand it and get it.

[Burkni]

Double R, on 26 July 2011 - 05:22 PM, said:

Agreed!
Voeckler most likely returns to be the darling of the french public but not a threat in the GC. Should be in a couple of breakaways though.

Trouble is that no one is giving him any leeway anymore, now that they know he can climb.

[Strategy]

Contador has confirmed that his plan for 2012 will be to ride the Tour and the Vuelta.

[Burkni]

Strategy, on 12 August 2011 - 11:08 PM, said:

Contador has confirmed that his plan for 2012 will be to ride the Tour and the Vuelta.

Wonder if they'll keep the Vuelta at its 1wk-earlier-than-usual starting date, like this year, or whether that was just to increase the chances of good weather at the Copenhagen Worlds?
If the date is here to stay, it might make the double harder.

[Burkni]

An update on the Parcours rumours:

Grand départ:
Kick-off in Liege, first stage taking in a healthy dose of Ardennes climbs, although not quite healthy enough for Gilbert.

1st week:
Makes its way into NW France via Orchies and touching in Rouen before heading back east to Reims, Metz, Nancy. Likely to have a nice uphill finish in Boulogne-sur-Mer, identical to the one used at this year's French championships
1 stage in the Vosges. Don't worry, Andy Schleck will not attack there, because it isn't the Alps or the Pyrenees, and this isn't the last week.
End with a brief foray into Switzerland (Porrentruy). Could make for a semi-hard stage if the go through the Jura mountains. If this stage sets out from Belfort, it could be a TT.

2nd week:
A bit of a loop before heading into the Alps from the west. Stage finishes in Chambery and La Toussuire, setting out from Albertville to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the Albertville Olympic Games.
Set out in direction of the Pyrenees. Possible puncheur finish into Annonay.

3rd week:
3 days in the Pyrenees, possible finishes at St. Lary Soulan, Peyragudes or Pierre St. Martin, which has been high on the candidates' lists for years now.
TT around the Lac de Vassiviere, bringing back memories of Lemond and Indurain.

Main sources:
http://www.velowire....ge-cities-.html
http://www.lepays.fr...-ca-se-confirme

[VdB]

Looking forward to the stages in Belgium! If I'm still here by then, that is.

Might be a good idea for GC guys who have the legs to attack early in the middle mountains...like Burkni said, Andy will never see it coming. He'll probably say something like "the fans don't want to see the Tour decided on a mountain that isn't at least 15 kms long and in the third week of the Tour".