[Double R]

Contador has a lot of pride, and I'm sure he want to fight to the end.
Somewhat under the radar, Ivan Basso has had a quite good first week.I'm seeing him as a god contender to get the last place at the podium. Cadel? A little bit too good form at the moment? Usually (for the GC-contenders) their goal is to have their best form in the last 10 days..

[Double R]

Leafcake, on 08 July 2011 - 07:09 PM, said:

Just wondering whether, after the loss of Wiggins, Sky will try a top 10-20 with Thomas or Uran.

THOMAS Geraint + 03' 17"
URAN Rigoberto + 04' 23"

Maybe a more likely scenario is that they don't care so much about the GC anymore, and goes for the stagewins?

[buddy]

Hey Double R. The scary thing is that a fresh Cadel Evan's may be yet to reach his best form. He wasn't so brilliant in the Dauphine where Wiggins won. He could still be building. It is just that he hasn't had to race so much this year and is a bit fresher than usual. You cannot say the same abotu the riders who did the Giro this year.

Baso is indeed a danger if he has his climbing legs. Cunego is also in the mix and I would love for him to do well but realistically his GC days in a GT are done.

I am still looking forward to what is to come ... despite the carnage to date.

Thanks,

Buddy

[Double R]

If Cadel find even better form in the next two weeks, then AC and Andy S should be very afraid..but Cadel has just looked best of the GC-contenders in the first week..in a strange way, that's not a good sign..

I agree that racing the giro is not the best way to prepare for the Tour. But AC probably rested for 10 days after the Giro and then started to build up his form again. Most likely he would better and better. But the danger of racing the giro means that he he still could be to tired to reach peak form in july.

The sure thing..Andy S is ready. He already looks sharp, and when the hills gets longer and steeper, I'm sure he is at his best.

[Strategy]

As feared (post from Twitter):

CyclingCentral CyclingCentral
Contador appears normal on the bike but knee swollen. Hurt it early in the tour aggravated it yesterday. #sbstdf
9 minutes ago

CyclingCentral
CyclingCentral CyclingCentral
Waiting for alberto #sbstdf http://twitpic.com/5oj8ro
16 minutes ago

CyclingCentral
CyclingCentral CyclingCentral
Unlikely to pull out by no doubt at all that he is not at 100%. Nowhere near. Presser at 3. #sbstdf
30 minutes ago

CyclingCentral
CyclingCentral CyclingCentral
Contador leaving training early. He has a major knee problem. Not good. #sbstdf
36 minutes ago

CyclingCentral
CyclingCentral CyclingCentral
Saxo on a training ride #sbstdf http://twitpic.com/5oissv
59 minutes ago

I've seen speculation that he was favoring his knee already on Stage 4 (which may be why his acceleration didn't have its usual snap), and the comments after yesterday's stage basically confirmed those observations. Not looking good.

[Burkni]

True.
Pity though.

[walt]

I was really looking forward to AC having to open it up in the mountains to gain back time. Strategy, I am afraid you're right that his stage 4 attack stalled quickly with a grimace on his face and a lot of pain in his knee. At least Andy and Frank will have to do some attacking in the mountains because Cadel will gain time on them in the TT.

[The Rake]

I think Frank Schleck may be the dark horse to win this year. Just as he was the stalking horse for Sastre's attack on Ale d'Huez in 2008 he could be used again (and again to the detriment of Evans).

However, they may want to play cards and let him go. Frank is much worse against the clock than AS, and this could leave Andy Schleck's hands tied should Frank suffer a bad day

[micomico]

buddy, on 11 July 2011 - 06:43 AM, said:

Baso is indeed a danger if he has his climbing legs. Cunego is also in the mix and I would love for him to do well but realistically his GC days in a GT are done.

Othen than one race early on, Basso has had a bad year despite careful buildups. I don't think that it is likely that he can bring it on. I would like to see him do well.
Either way, he is, of course, tranquilo.

[Double R]

micomico, on 11 July 2011 - 03:40 PM, said:

Othen than one race early on, Basso has had a bad year despite careful buildups. I don't think that it is likely that he can bring it on. I would like to see him do well.
Either way, he is, of course, tranquilo.

Basso had a heavy crash in may, and had to take a break after that. That's the reason for lack of good results in the buildup to the Tour. I don't think he has what it takes to challenge AC or Andy S, but in his best form he should challenge for a podium finish.

[micomico]

Double R, on 11 July 2011 - 04:23 PM, said:

Basso had a heavy crash in may, and had to take a break after that. That's the reason for lack of good results in the buildup to the Tour. I don't think he has what it takes to challenge AC or Andy S, but in his best form he should challenge for a podium finish.

I remember that, needed head stitches, I think. He wasn't doing as well as even he expected prior to that. I agree with you that he is a second-tier rider now at best.

[Jayhawk]

micomico, on 11 July 2011 - 04:28 PM, said:

[Basso] wasn't doing as well as even he expected prior to [his accident in May]. I agree with you that he is a second-tier rider now at best.

He was ill. He withdrew from the Tour of the Basque Country in April & didn't ride for two weeks. Then the face plant in May kept him off the bike for another two weeks.

I assume he's riding himself into shape with each passing day, though. He was magnificent in the mountains in the 2010 Giro. If we see any of that in the Tour from Basso, then the Schlecks will have their hands full.

[wildeone]

Jayhawk, on 11 July 2011 - 05:41 PM, said:

He was ill. He withdrew from the Tour of the Basque Country in April & didn't ride for two weeks. Then the face plant in May kept him off the bike for another two weeks.

I assume he's riding himself into shape with each passing day, though. He was magnificent in the mountains in the 2010 Giro. If we see any of that in the Tour from Basso, then the Schlecks will have their hands full.

i'm with you, Jayhawk. i do not think Basso is second tier.

whether he's recovered enough is another story... i think it shook him up a lot.

[Double R]

Evans mention Basso, the schlecks and Contador as main contenders after first week;

Quote

Otherwise there are no surprises in the names Cadel Evans mentions as its main competitors, Andy Schleck, Frank Schleck, Alberto Contador and Ivan Basso.

"Knee injuries can be extremely complicated, especially because it can make it difficult for Contador pedals to correct, but I still see him as a great competitor.Then there is the Schleck brothers, who besides running great up also both well advanced in the GC, which can be an advantage for them. Last I do not think you should forget Basso has been hiding so far.But he has also seen strong out, "concluded Evans.

source: feltet.dk

[buddy]

I think for Evan's it is best if Contador is there riding. Whilstever he is there he is the dangerman. Until it is proven otherwise.

Unfortunately I suspect his knee problem will cause him to drop out of the Tour. I don't think he was fully recovered from the Giro in any case and would have ridden below his best this tour. ( mind you below his best is still better than mosts riders career best form). Now with the knee injury Contador has his exit srategy from the Tour and still keep face. I don't think he will see the alps.

Should this eventuate it makes the race interesting. The Schlecks need to gain time on Evan's before the ITT. Are they prepared to send Frank S up the road?

The help that Evan's will get from a rider like Basso may well be critical. Evan's previously had trouble being out numbered by Saxo Bank but that was 3 against 1. No Sastre this year so maybe Evan's could handle the Schleck one-two. I am not sure Evan's will climb well enough to drop both Andy and Frank. At his best he may be able to stay with them.

This is where Basso could be important. Basso at his best is a super climber. We have seen that in last years Giro. I am not sure if he is anywhewre near that form but if he is approaching it then the Schleck's will have that to think about too.

Thursday can't come quick enough.

For tonight. I hope Hoogerland can see out the stage with the bunch but I doubt it. I would love for him to have the honour of wearing the polka dot jersey with pride.

Regards,

Buddy

[Burkni]

Sitting quietly in 2nd place, nearly 40secs ahead of Evans, is St. Flour stage winner LL Sanchez.
I know he doesn't have a high GC placing on his resume, but he can climb and TT, and seems like a slightly dangerous guy to give too much leeway.
At best, he could challenge for the podium and wear yellow after the Pyrenees. At worst, he'll make an interesting ally for Gesink in mountainous territory.

[Strategy]

Re: LL Sanchez. Yeah, I was shaking my head when BMC and Leopard let him leapfrog their boys on sunday's stage. I definitely wouldn't rule him out from becoming "surprisingly" difficult to shake off when they get to the mountains.

Contador almost caught out by a split today (according to Nicki), but he simply powered his way up the climb on his own to close the gap. That is promising - one presumes that if Contador had really bad problems, he wouldn't have been able to do that. Only Chris Anker of those on hand was able to follow AC.

Though - another day when the Saxobank squad don't quite manage to keep things under control. Rolf Sørensen is highly critical of the team - castigates Benjamin Noval for being useless, and says that too much of the burden of protecting Contador is being placed on Nicki. And although experienced, Nicki is used to being supported by big riders such as Voigt and Cancellara. I tend to agree - also find Noval very dissappointing and a little in Tossatto (whom I had expected - at least - to be able to maneuver these hectic finales in a good way). It's been a poor showing by Saxobank so far, and Riis will no doubt have to think a bit extra over his rider setup for next year's Tour. The team badly needs a "big guy" again.

[Burkni]

Strategy, on 12 July 2011 - 07:09 PM, said:

Re: LL Sanchez. Yeah, I was shaking my head when BMC and Leopard let him leapfrog their boys on sunday's stage. I definitely wouldn't rule him out from becoming "surprisingly" difficult to shake off when they get to the mountains.

Contador almost caught out by a split today (according to Nicki), but he simply powered his way up the climb on his own to close the gap. That is promising - one presumes that if Contador had really bad problems, he wouldn't have been able to do that. Only Chris Anker of those on hand was able to follow AC.

Though - another day when the Saxobank squad don't quite manage to keep things under control. Rolf Sørensen is highly critical of the team - castigates Benjamin Noval for being useless, and says that too much of the burden of protecting Contador is being placed on Nicki. And although experienced, Nicki is used to being supported by big riders such as Voigt and Cancellara. I tend to agree - also find Noval very dissappointing and a little in Tossatto (whom I had expected - at least - to be able to maneuver these hectic finales in a good way). It's been a poor showing by Saxobank so far, and Riis will no doubt have to think a bit extra over his rider setup for next year's Tour. The team badly needs a "big guy" again.

Agree, they plain suck at support.
I wonder if Contador would rather have his hostile 2009 Astana team back, at least they were strong and well-organized.

[buddy]

Saxo Bank certainly haven't been too inspirng in their support of Contador. It certainly does raise questions about their ability to help him when it matters. Compare them to BMC, Leopard and Liquigas who have all been supporting their leader in numbers.

Will Leopard have to courage to get Frank Schleck to attack on the Tourmalet during stage 12. This would shatter the peloton and make it a very select group over the top. It would then be interestign to see which GC favourite has the team that can provide adequate support.

If nothing else such an attack will leave Leopard with two at the front maybe more. Would Evan's have any BMC support?? Basso may have a couple still survive. Contador ??

Thanks,

Buddy

[Strategy]

buddy, on 13 July 2011 - 12:04 AM, said:

Saxo Bank certainly haven't been too inspirng in their support of Contador. It certainly does raise questions about their ability to help him when it matters. Compare them to BMC, Leopard and Liquigas who have all been supporting their leader in numbers.

The thing to keep in mind, though, is that the team is top-heavy for the latter stages of the Tour. Navarro, Chris Anker Sørensen, and Hernandez are all top class support riders for the mountains. Porte and Nicki Sørensen are also riders with a good deal of climbing ability (i.e., the kind one uses early on the climbs), so it is not a weak team - as I expect we'll see tommorrow.

In the terrain we are moving into, I expect BMC will be pretty non-existent. Liquigas and Leopard should still make a good showing, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hernandez/Anker/Navarro would be more than capable of isolating the Schlecks/Basso - assuming they are in top form.