[Strategy]

Saxobank has just announced that it will extend its sponsorship contract with Riis into 2012. Sungard is already on board for that period, making the team Saxobank-Sungard next year as well.

Good and timely result for Riis - one is tempted to say - for once. It means that he can concentrate fully on achieving a result with Contador in the Tour, and will be able to work actively to secure existing contracts (Richie Porte being - perhaps - the most important) and sign new ones during the coming months instead of - as too often before - being handicapped by an uncertain sponsorship situation.

This post has been edited by Strategy: 21 June 2011 - 01:04 PM

[Strategy]

According to Saxobank, the new contract (which is a 1 year extension), is bigger than the 2011 contract. Both Riis and Saxobank have opened up for the possibility of an extension beyond 2012 (no doubt the resolution of the Contador case and what Contador choses to do after 2012 will have an impact).

[Mantus]

Saxo Bank saving Riis - early on - despite the Contador case, who they initially signed on for. I have to read this as a sign that Contador's case will be dismissed. I sincerely feel that Riis and Saxo Bank must be getting some good indications from Contador's lawyers.Other than that, Saxo Bank are buying 'love' in the Danish population, once again saving Riis from a difficult situation.

Alas, this is all symbolical. I'm sure the Saxo Bank guys did the numbers and KNOW sponsoring Contador and Riis makes good sense from an economical standpoint.

For Riis, this is great news. Expect Riis to secure Contador some more capable backing (I'm thinking guys like Tiralongo) and, perhaps, a guy like Boasson-Hagen, who has really stagnated at Team Sky. Other than that, Troels Vinther and C. Juul Jensen seem like obvious talent signings.

This post has been edited by Mantus: 21 June 2011 - 01:34 PM

[Strategy]

EBH - I'm sure the interest is there from Riis (who has always been very interested in the top Scandinavian talents), but the question is whether the interest is mutual.

I would think Riis would be most interested in going out and finding some new riders who can create results on their own for next season. Saxobank providing him with more money sounds a lot like they are hedging their bets to me - if Contador does get suspended, a reinforced SBS team would be able to create results even without him. Despite Nuyens great results in the Classics, there's no hiding that currently the SBS team is very much a one-man show. This definitely can't be what Riis wants.

This post has been edited by Strategy: 21 June 2011 - 07:58 PM

[micomico]

This is good news for cycling. I wonder if Saxo Bank may have discreetly worked a contingency financial commitment plan if Contador, who would otherwise has a good chance of securing two GT wins for their sponsor next year, is suspended.

It is a huge swing in exposure with versus a suspended AC, and this type of fluctuation has a big effect on exposure for the sponsor.

Just wondering.

If I were Saxo Bank, it would be reasonable to tell him that. Not only would exposure be decreased, but so would the payroll, so why not make an adjustment if that is the case, leaving some money aside for a replacement?

This post has been edited by micomico: 22 June 2011 - 05:20 AM

[Strategy]

I would not be surprised if that is the case, although Saxobank denies that the case will have any consequences for the sponsorship.

Either way, one can say that they have a fairly good business case either way - as it looks now, they will get the exposure from Contador at this year's Tour, and if he should be suspended, Riis should have time to build up another team for next year - and they are only bound for one year.

It is quite possible that Riis demanded that the sponsorship remain unchanged regardless of the Contador verdict in order to accept the 1-year duration. He wanted a multi-year agreement.

This post has been edited by Strategy: 22 June 2011 - 07:19 AM

[rational head]

Strategy, on 21 June 2011 - 01:13 PM, said:

According to Saxobank, the new contract (which is a 1 year extension), is bigger than the 2011 contract. Both Riis and Saxobank have opened up for the possibility of an extension beyond 2012 (no doubt the resolution of the Contador case and what Contador choses to do after 2012 will have an impact).

That first sentence that the contract will be bigger (and the timing - couldn't they wait another 6 weeks for CAS's decision) are the two most intriguing factors to me.

The decision to commit with more capital and to do it now are as clear signals of optimism with respect to Contador's case as any business decision can convey.

In a nutshell, Saxobank is saying, "based on our review of all up-to-date legal and sporting factors, we believe you will be acquitted and we have made room for your huge salary till your current contract expires. Plus, we may be open for further sponsorship"

At least, that's my reading..Strat, have you seen other interpretations of the reason for why Saxobank decided not to wait several more weeks?

[Strategy]

rational head, on 22 June 2011 - 10:11 AM, said:

At least, that's my reading..Strat, have you seen other interpretations of the reason for why Saxobank decided not to wait several more weeks?

I've read several versions of that reading (some being more conspirational - i.e., Saxobank already knows what the verdict will be, etc).

I think the most obvious reason to go public with the agreement now, rather than in six weeks, is to ensure that the team has the best possible working conditions for the Tour. Last year, SBS was plagued by constant speculation and questions regarding the unresolved sponsorship situation and rumors of riders signing elsewhere. In addition, Riis could not really participate actively in the "transfer market" due to the uncertainties surrounding the team - which probably left the team a good deal weaker this year than it could have been. Having extra budget now, will allow Riis to go for a couple of big signings during the Tour, irrespective of the outcome of the Contador case. Seen that way, the budget increase could be viewed as simply insurance.

Also, as micomico notes, there may be clauses in the agreement depending on the verdict which has not been made public.

[Strategy]

Another reason why the agreement may have gone public before the Tour has come to light.

According to the Saxobank director, in addition to increasing the sponsorship (significantly), there is a clause in the contract whereby if Riis finds "the right rider", Saxobank will step in with additional funds to cover his wages. By the right rider, of course, they are talking of bringing a new big name into the team - probably in the realization that Saxobank is a bit too dependent on Contador in order to have a successful season at the moment.

I read this to mean that Riis has a specific big name rider in his sights that he wants to sign a letter of intent with during the Tour and that he has been given the means from Saxobank to go for it. One would assume that this is a rider for either the Ardennes or the cobbled classics.

Saxobank have also made a big point out of mentioning in the Danish press that a suspension for Contador will not have any material effects on the situation for the team (though neither Riis nor Saxobank will deny that the sponsorship may be reduced if Contador is out - so presumably that is the case as it would make good sense).

I mentioned that Riis must be after specific riders; according to the rumor mill, Riis is looking to sign one or more of the following for next season:

Philippe Gilbert
Thor Hushovd
Edvald Boasson Hagen

In other words, Riis is keen on re-establishing his team as the top team in the world.

In addition, rumor has it that Paolo Tiralongo will sign for the team (requested by Contador).

[rational head]

Interesting information, Strat! Thanks.

I am always impressed by Riis's strategic vision and his ability to survive and even thrive in the face of tough odds.

CN has also picked on the news already and I was intrigued by the following quote attributed to Saxo Bank CEO:
http://www.cyclingne...for-more-riders

Quote

"But let me also say that it is definitely not my expectation that we are going to lose Contador due to a conviction. It would be a great injustice from the information I have gathered about the situation."

This jives perfectly with my earlier post where I speculated that Saxo Bank's decision was also (I realize there were other points) based on reading the signals from the up-to-date CAS developments not available to the public.

Yeah, Tiralongo to Saxo makes a perfect sense after the Giro noble gesture by Contador.

[bodomaniac]

I am hoping Riis can get two good mountain goats for AC, but I'm really hoping they become a classics powerhouse again and can attract the likes of Hushovd, EBH and Gilbert to the team to go along with Nuyens, who had an excellent classics season, but he was the lone exception for them. I highly doubt they'll get all three men mentioned, however if they can get two of the three and everyone can co-exist that's progress in the right direction.

[Strategy]

Tejay von Garderen is also mentioned as a hot subject; not just because he is a talent, but also since Sungard (sponsor) would probably like an American rider on the team.

Riis is definitely "flirting" with Hushovd, but the Norwegians agent is more dismissive, commenting that Hushovd's ambitions (green jersey) are not a good fit with Saxobank-Sungard. Have to say that I agree - even with the new rules, Hushovd still has the class and skills needed to win the green jersey. So even though I would love to see him strengthen the Scandinavian aspect of SBS, I think it would be best if he finds a team that will ride for him in the Tour.

[VdB]

Strategy, on 10 July 2011 - 11:47 AM, said:

Tejay von Garderen is also mentioned as a hot subject; not just because he is a talent, but also since Sungard (sponsor) would probably like an American rider on the team.

Riis is definitely "flirting" with Hushovd, but the Norwegians agent is more dismissive, commenting that Hushovd's ambitions (green jersey) are not a good fit with Saxobank-Sungard. Have to say that I agree - even with the new rules, Hushovd still has the class and skills needed to win the green jersey. So even though I would love to see him strengthen the Scandinavian aspect of SBS, I think it would be best if he finds a team that will ride for him in the Tour.

I agree that Hushovd could still win green, but I think that green isn't necessarily an ambition for him anymore. I'm sure he'd like to try another time, but I don't think he'd have any issues with letting it go if the team policy dictates that. Just look at how courteous he's been at Garmin with Farrar on board: he knew from the start that the team was riding every 'normal' sprint for Farrar and that they weren't going to support him for green unless the situation presented itself. And he hasn't done or said a single thing to suggest he's not okay with it.

So I think that, if he's promised a good package and decent support at the classics, he may still agree. Otoh...even though their spring wasn't much to write him about, Garmin's classics team should be much stronger than Saxo's.

[Strategy]

Strong rumors that Riis/Saxobank are extremely keen to sign Tony Martin.

Not very surprising, of course. He is a perfect fit for the team; he'll strengthen the team immeasurably for future TTTs and can win shorter stage races that Contador does not feel like contesting. Essentially, he would become the replacement for the TT skills that the team lost with Cancellara - no classics power, but better climbing skills. And with this year's results at the Tour, he has hopefully realized that seriously contesting the GC of a Grand Tour is not his destiny (unless one of the GTs does retro-style course with 100+ kms of time trialling).

[Strategy]

VdB, on 11 July 2011 - 11:15 PM, said:

I agree that Hushovd could still win green, but I think that green isn't necessarily an ambition for him anymore. I'm sure he'd like to try another time, but I don't think he'd have any issues with letting it go if the team policy dictates that. Just look at how courteous he's been at Garmin with Farrar on board: he knew from the start that the team was riding every 'normal' sprint for Farrar and that they weren't going to support him for green unless the situation presented itself. And he hasn't done or said a single thing to suggest he's not okay with it.

Thor is too classy to be making a big fuss over Tyler Farrar or the decisions on Garmin, but Atle Kvålsvoll (his coach and also agent, I think) has made it pretty clear that he believes Thor should ride for a team that backs him 100% as well as his ambition to win Green again. After his results during this Tour, I can't see him staying at Garmin or going to Saxobank.

[Burkni]

Strategy, on 15 July 2011 - 08:26 PM, said:

Thor is too classy to be making a big fuss over Tyler Farrar or the decisions on Garmin, but Atle Kvålsvoll (his coach and also agent, I think) has made it pretty clear that he believes Thor should ride for a team that backs him 100% as well as his ambition to win Green again. After his results during this Tour, I can't see him staying at Garmin or going to Saxobank.

For the classics yes, but I agree that he will hardly be going for green again.
For three years running, he has managed to snag some of the Tour's most prestigious stages. I expect him to keep trying to do precisely that.

[Strategy]

Burkni, on 16 July 2011 - 12:06 PM, said:

For the classics yes, but I agree that he will hardly be going for green again.

He and his coach both state Green as an ambition (and he has said several times during this Tour that he could have won green this year as well, although of course always with respect for the team's decision). I'm sure Paris-Roubaix and Fleche Wallonne are higher on his list of priorities, so if it is a choice between the two, he will probably chose the Classics, but there is no reason why he shouldn't be able to find a team that will support him for both.

[Burkni]

Strategy, on 17 July 2011 - 10:21 AM, said:

He and his coach both state Green as an ambition (and he has said several times during this Tour that he could have won green this year as well, although of course always with respect for the team's decision). I'm sure Paris-Roubaix and Fleche Wallonne are higher on his list of priorities, so if it is a choice between the two, he will probably chose the Classics, but there is no reason why he shouldn't be able to find a team that will support him for both.

Do you mean RVV, or is his climbing success really getting to his head?

[Strategy]

RVV, of course.

[Strategy]

So, just some thoughts on the Saxobank news of the past couple of days.

Contador decided to not fight the 2-year ban, commenting that it would be pointless since all a civil court would do if he won would be to send it back to CAS. Without a doubt, it has also played into his concerns that Saxobank kept its license, thus guaranteeing that he can ride the races he wants in the autumn. Doubtless the right decision and we can at last get closure on this case (until the next doping scandal hits).

What really got my interest, though, was the decision by the License commission to maintain Saxobank's license as well as the news that it is the UCI specifically that argued for them to lose it. Apparently, either Riis or Contador has very powerful enemies in the UCI. It is no secret that I'm a SBS fan, but I seriously can't see any other reason why the UCI would act this way, because I seriously don't see any way in which the decision to take away their license could be defended.
- Why should the entire team be punished for not collecting enough points when the team was riding for one rider - who had been exonerated and given permission to ride?
- Why should a team be punished for the doping infraction a rider did while on another team? Especially when it was the U CI itself that advised said rider to keep quiet about his positive test, thus preventing SBS from hiring someone else?

It does raise the question of why the UCI - in a time of economic crisis - would want to try and kill one of the most stable top teams of the past decade in Cycling. Even given the corrupt and vindictive nature the UCI has demonstrated in the past, this one still leaves me puzzled.


And it does leave me wondering whether the team is going to be able to continue.

- Can Contador ride in points for the team? The UCI is adamant that he cannot, but there are serious questions about this (not least whether this is even legal). A vital question, because it makes a huge difference as to what riders Riis needs to hire before next season, and perhaps even whether Contador has a future with the team.

- Big question about the sponsor. It looks as if Saxobank are prepared to sign for yet another year, but the longer there is uncertainty, the worse for the teams possibilities of signing riders.

- Contador? Team Movistar is obviously going to bid in for him after this season, will he extend his contract or go for the "safe" Spanish solution.