[crockett]

Burkni, on 21 May 2011 - 11:01 AM, said:

Kind thanks to you.

I believe what Jayhawk meant was that she had to have a few drinks before she could stomach your posts!

This post has been edited by crockett: 21 May 2011 - 02:18 PM

[Strategy]

Jayhawk, on 20 May 2011 - 11:29 PM, said:

Well, yes, frankly. Domenico Pozzovivo, though he's been a dud so far, and JRod, & Igor Anton. And of course I thought Nibali & Scarponi would be right up there, putting the pressure on. Rujano too, providing he didn't succumb to his quirks. I believed Contador would prevail, but I didn't expect him to blow cycling's premier climbers out of the water.

Domenico Poze-Who?

JR and IA - Burkni has already covered one reason why they might be under performing; in addition, it is very rare to see Spanish climbers do well at the Giro. I agree that these two guys are great climbers - on their day and in their type of ascent. But climbers on the same level as Contador? I don't see it - I don't think either has the ability to climb at this high a level for multiple days of a GT (which is another way of saying that I suspect we will see Igor Anton crack somewhat on one of the coming stages in repayment for his pretty spectacular riding yesterday). Look at the kind of opposition (and margins to them) against which Anton won his stages in the Vuelta last year. Rodriguez was distanced by minutes to Schleck/Contador on many of the Tour mountain stages last year. Much the same way as has happened in the Giro to Contador.

Scarponi is great, but falls for me into the same class as JR and IA; stellar on individual days but never able to hang on to the best in the long run. I actually think he has been pretty impressive so far. Nibali failed to dominate the climbs in the Vuelta he won against much the same kind of opposition he faces now. He's a bit like Menchov of the Armstrong years - extremely good at pacing himself, but simply not capable of matching the best climbers on any given day.

Of course, the question was a bit loaded, as there are very few climbers that I would expect to be able to stay close (i.e., less than a couple of minutes) to Contador over a GT. Andy Schleck. Franck Schleck (maybe - and assuming he can manage to stay on his bike). Ivan Basso (pre-2007 edition and - just maybe - the 2010+ edition). Levi Leipheimer (2007-2008. Will be interesting if we get to see glimpses of that again this year). And even at their best, I don't believe any of these riders (even Andy) can really match Contador's accelerations, which IMO gives him the edge in the mountains.

The big question mark, IMO, as to whether Contador would win this or not is whether he is in 100% form. I used to have some doubts about how good Contador really was as a climber in the past, but that was several years ago.

Executive summary: right now, in terms of top climbers, I think Cycling has Andy and Alberto... and then the rest.

This post has been edited by Strategy: 22 May 2011 - 10:25 AM

[Jayhawk]

This Domenico Pozzovivo:

(2008 Giro, Stage 15, Dolomites)

1 Emanuele Sella (Ita) CSF Group Navigare 4.53.24 (31.492 km/h)
2 Domenico Pozzovivo (Ita) CSF Group Navigare 2.05
3 Riccardo Riccò (Ita) Saunier Duval - Scott 2.11
4 Danilo Di Luca (Ita) LPR Brakes 2.20
5 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Serramenti PVC Diquigiovanni-Androni Giocattoli 2.27
6 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana
7 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 2.34
8 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Silence - Lotto 3.18
9 Marzio Bruseghin (Ita) Lampre 3.22
10 Tadej Valjavec (Slo) AG2R La Mondiale 3.27
11 Franco Pellizotti (Ita) Liquigas
12 Fortunato Baliani (Ita) CSF Group Navigare 3.49
13 Joaquin Rodriguez (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 5.07
14 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 5.10

He finished 9th in the 2008 Giro. His team wasn't invited in 2009, he abandoned in 2010, and he abandoned today.
Last year he finished third in the Giro del Trentino (the Giro warm-up) behind Vino & Ricco but ahead of Basso. He finished 4th this year.
Very fine climber, only 28 years old.

This post has been edited by Jayhawk: 22 May 2011 - 07:52 PM

[Burkni]

I think it's safe to say that there was something shady going on at CSF-Navigare.

[Strategy]

Jayhawk, on 22 May 2011 - 07:46 PM, said:

This Domenico Pozzovivo:

(2008 Giro, Stage 15, Dolomites)

1 Emanuele Sella (Ita) CSF Group Navigare 4.53.24 (31.492 km/h)
2 Domenico Pozzovivo (Ita) CSF Group Navigare 2.05

I do remember an incredible young climber from 2008, but I've not seen that rider since Priamo and Sella got banned.

[Jayhawk]

Strategy, on 23 May 2011 - 07:33 AM, said:

I do remember an incredible young climber from 2008, but I've not seen that rider since Priamo and Sella got banned.

I remember him riding so well in last year's Giro del Trentino (and the fun on the podium when Ricco sprayed Vino & Pozzo with champagne & Vino responded by shooting bubbly point blank in Ricco's face -- don't mess with Vino -- poor Pozzovivo couldn't get the cork off his bottle).

He did well this year too, though I didn't follow the race.