[bodomaniac]

Burkni, on 20 May 2011 - 04:13 PM, said:

Agree re: the Basso comparison.
I fear very conservative racing in the remaining stages.

Yep, with the uphill TT Sunday I don't see there being many if any fireworks taking place on the Zoncolan outsie of Rujano going up the road for another stage win. Outside of that AC will be taking it easy and marking any attacks from his nearest pursuers, who I don't think will be riding all that aggressively either. Contador can essentially put it in cruise control right now and more than likely finish the race with a 5 min. advantage after the two TT's are factored in. Incredibly, his hardest day in the saddle thus far was the Mt. Etna stage, but outside of that he hasn't had to do a lot of work. I think he'll come out of the Giro fairly fresh and in great shape to tackle Le Tour, provided the decision from the CAS trial goes in his favor and right now I'm betting it does.

[N.B.O.L.]

I wonder if anybody has a "Plan C". The "A" and "B" plans have not worked.

[Mark]

All of a sudden, that claim from Rujano about being the "third best climber in the world" doesn't seem too far-fetched. He was the only one able (or willing) to respond today to Contador's attack.

The other favorites just watched each other, ever guarding those other two podium places. Boooring!

[N.B.O.L.]

Doesn't Rujano speak Spanish? It looked like at the end he wasn't sure a deal had been made. Keep checking behind him to see if AC was getting ready to pip him at the line.

[Burkni]

N.B.O.L., on 20 May 2011 - 05:28 PM, said:

I wonder if anybody has a "Plan C". The "A" and "B" plans have not worked.

I'd say the biggest disappointment so far is Nibali.
Still, with so much climbing to go, some guys may leaving their peak a bit late.

[Jayhawk]

N.B.O.L., on 20 May 2011 - 05:55 PM, said:

Doesn't Rujano speak Spanish? It looked like at the end he wasn't sure a deal had been made. Keep checking behind him to see if AC was getting ready to pip him at the line.

I noticed that too: "Did I...? Will he let me...? Am I still...? YES!!! Check one more time... YES!!!"

As much as I am enjoying the spectacle of AC flying away from the pack, I can't help but think of Basso in '06, Sella in '08, & Ricco in the '08 TdF also flying away from the pack. AC is riding like an extraterrestrial. There, I said it.

[Jayhawk]

N.B.O.L., on 20 May 2011 - 05:28 PM, said:

I wonder if anybody has a "Plan C". The "A" and "B" plans have not worked.

You're being very witty today

Todd Gogulski said the others look dejected. I thought so too.

[MrHarm]

bodomaniac, on 20 May 2011 - 04:50 PM, said:

provided the decision from the CAS trial goes in his favor and right now I'm betting it does.

Not sure if my cycling interest would survive that. So, without turning this further into a thread belonging somewhere else, I still consider the race for actual pink to be wide open.

This post has been edited by MrHarm: 20 May 2011 - 06:54 PM

[shag]

Mark, on 20 May 2011 - 05:34 PM, said:

All of a sudden, that claim from Rujano about being the "third best climber in the world" doesn't seem too far-fetched.

Yeah, right now it looks like 1. Contador 2. Horner 3. Rujano. Rest of the world climbing somewhat slower!

[Burkni]

shag, on 20 May 2011 - 06:56 PM, said:

Yeah, right now it looks like 1. Contador 2. Horner 3. Rujano. Rest of the world climbing somewhat slower!

Right now yes, I wonder what Andy Schleck would say about the general scheme of things

[MrHarm]

Burkni, on 20 May 2011 - 07:26 PM, said:

Right now yes, I wonder what Andy Schleck would say about the general scheme of things

Say he'd work to change it, and then hug and kiss it all the way up the Tourmalet?

[Mark]

Burkni, on 20 May 2011 - 07:26 PM, said:

Right now yes, I wonder what Andy Schleck would say about the general scheme of things

It depends: if we're talking LBL or the Tour, he'd have plenty to say. Otherwise, he couldn't be bothered to care.

[Strategy]

Jayhawk, on 20 May 2011 - 06:47 PM, said:

As much as I am enjoying the spectacle of AC flying away from the pack, I can't help but think of Basso in '06, Sella in '08, & Ricco in the '08 TdF also flying away from the pack. AC is riding like an extraterrestrial. There, I said it.

Seriously - hasn't Contador always ridden like an extra-terrestial when in shape? There is only a couple of riders in the current pack who have ever matched him properly in those circumstances, and none of them are at this race.

I get where you're coming from, but if we're going down that road, we might as well comment that Contador's and Schleck's fellow performances at the 2010 Tour were E-T, etc, etc. Did anyone really expect any of the riders in the Giro to actually be able to follow AC when the roads got steep if he was in top form (which he clearly is)?

[Jayhawk]

Strategy, on 20 May 2011 - 10:33 PM, said:

Did anyone really expect any of the riders in the Giro to actually be able to follow AC when the roads got steep if he was in top form (which he clearly is)?

Well, yes, frankly. Domenico Pozzovivo, though he's been a dud so far, and JRod, & Igor Anton. And of course I thought Nibali & Scarponi would be right up there, putting the pressure on. Rujano too, providing he didn't succumb to his quirks. I believed Contador would prevail, but I didn't expect him to blow cycling's premier climbers out of the water.

[Burkni]

Mark, on 20 May 2011 - 08:26 PM, said:

It depends: if we're talking LBL or the Tour, he'd have plenty to say. Otherwise, he couldn't be bothered to care.

Well as long as Frank is in the race, we can be absolutely sure they won't do anything remotely sensible, tactically!

Jayhawk, on 20 May 2011 - 11:29 PM, said:

Well, yes, frankly. Domenico Pozzovivo, though he's been a dud so far, and JRod, & Igor Anton. And of course I thought Nibali & Scarponi would be right up there, putting the pressure on. Rujano too, providing he didn't succumb to his quirks. I believed Contador would prevail, but I didn't expect him to blow cycling's premier climbers out of the water.

I have a feeling that Purito and Anton entered this race half-heartedly, they minds are already on giving the Vuelta another crack after they failed last year (for different reasons obviously) which is not surprising as it is their home tour.
The Italians, on the other hand ... Scarponi may not really be cut out for the really hard GTs (even if he won the queen stage last year - king stage being the Tonale stage) but more powerful on the shorter climbs. I also feel he may have spread his form too thin, remember his awesome performance 2 whole months ago in MSR??
Nibali is a bit puzzling, he has staked his entire season on this race, being named captain from the start, doing more than one training camp on Etna alone (which has become quite the training destination, do they perhaps have more lenient pharmaceutical regulations in Sicily?) having the home court advantage on that particular stage, but still he just doesn't look as sharp as last year. Even when he is just riding tempo with the gruppo, he looks on his limit. I wouldn't be surprised if Gadret ends up on the podium.

[crockett]

N.B.O.L., on 20 May 2011 - 05:55 PM, said:

Doesn't Rujano speak Spanish? It looked like at the end he wasn't sure a deal had been made. Keep checking behind him to see if AC was getting ready to pip him at the line.

If he doesn't, he's in real trouble!

[crockett]

Now that I've seen today's stage, I'm more than a little puzzled by the tactics I saw today.

First off, what is Euskatel doing? Their riding today was puzzling to say the least. What did they have to gain with that imitation of the old USPS train? Talk about giving Saxobank the day off. I understand that they had nobody in the break, but neither did Saxo!

The only way anyway but Contador is going to win is to make his team work themselves to death and leave him totally exposed. And then work him over again and again.

Instead, his team was given a free ride to the base of the final climb.

Then, the tactics on the climb were bizarre as well! Why was Astana setting the pace for Contador when Rujano went up the road?

Then later, Contador is up the road. The darn GC leader, and the pack of challengers is practically free wheeling. They sit there and watch 2 guys on AG2R go up the road and nobody gives a darn.
They let Rujano and Contador nearly double their lead from the top of the last mountain to the finish. What are those guys thinking, if anything?

They were so busy battling for 2nd I guess, that if they keep it up, none of them will finish on the podium, and none of them will deserve it. Hopefully Rujano and Gadret join Contador on the podium because they have animated the stages.

I'll give a little credit to Scarponi, as he tried to move and couldn't keep it up, but Kreuziger, Menchov, and Nibali in particular put in a weak effort. Nibali's ride has been particularly puzzling. He should have driven the pack to the line, even if that meant losing a few seconds to them all at the end, while conserving at least 30 seconds on Contador. Now, if he launches a blistering attack tomorrow, please forget you read this.

[Jayhawk]

I think Nibali speaks for all the other contenders: There is nothing we can do.

http://www.cyclingne...gainst-contador

They've given up. You could see it in their faces today. I'm just surprised there isn't more fight for the other podium spots.

[Jayhawk]

Burkni, on 21 May 2011 - 12:13 AM, said:

Well as long as Frank is in the race, we can be absolutely sure they won't do anything remotely sensible, tactically!


I have a feeling that Purito and Anton entered this race half-heartedly, they minds are already on giving the Vuelta another crack after they failed last year (for different reasons obviously) which is not surprising as it is their home tour.
The Italians, on the other hand ... Scarponi may not really be cut out for the really hard GTs (even if he won the queen stage last year - king stage being the Tonale stage) but more powerful on the shorter climbs. I also feel he may have spread his form too thin, remember his awesome performance 2 whole months ago in MSR??
Nibali is a bit puzzling, he has staked his entire season on this race, being named captain from the start, doing more than one training camp on Etna alone (which has become quite the training destination, do they perhaps have more lenient pharmaceutical regulations in Sicily?) having the home court advantage on that particular stage, but still he just doesn't look as sharp as last year. Even when he is just riding tempo with the gruppo, he looks on his limit. I wouldn't be surprised if Gadret ends up on the podium.

Burkni, I must say (after a couple glasses of celebration bubbly) your race analysis and memory of racing history is wonderful to read.

[Burkni]

Jayhawk, on 21 May 2011 - 01:32 AM, said:

Burkni, I must say (after a couple glasses of celebration bubbly) your race analysis and memory of racing history is wonderful to read.

Kind thanks to you.